IBM CEO：以当前成本，投资数万亿建设AI数据中心“不可能赚钱”

华尔街见闻12-03

IBM首席执行官Arvind Krishna对当前人工智能（AI）领域的巨额投资热潮提出了严峻的财务警告。他认为，在当前的技术和成本结构下，科技公司为追逐通用人工智能（AGI）而投入数万亿美元建设数据中心的做法，几乎不可能获得投资回报。近日，Krishna在“Decoder”播客节目中发表了上述观点，这番言论直接挑战了行业内普遍存在的“不惜一切代价扩大算力”的策略，这种策略正推动着对英伟达等公司...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760595><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IBM首席执行官Arvind Krishna对当前人工智能（AI）领域的巨额投资热潮提出了严峻的财务警告。他认为，在当前的技术和成本结构下，科技公司为追逐通用人工智能（AGI）而投入数万亿美元建设数据中心的做法，几乎不可能获得投资回报。近日，Krishna在“Decoder”播客节目中发表了上述观点，这番言论直接挑战了行业内普遍存在的“不惜一切代价扩大算力”的策略，这种策略正推动着对英伟达等公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3760595\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1883839398.USD","symbol_name":"AMUNDI FUNDS INCOME OPPORTUNITIES \"A2\" (USD) 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Altman呼吁大幅增加能源供应以支持AI发展的行业趋势形成鲜明对比。Krishna的分析，将投资者的注意力从对AGI的遥远憧憬，拉回到资本支出、折旧和盈利能力的现实问题上。对AGI路径的怀疑：成功可能性仅为“0-1%”Krishna的财务怀疑论，根植于他对当前技术路径能否实现AGI的深刻疑虑。当被问及OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman相信其巨额投资能够产生回报时，Krishna表示他有不同看法。“那是一种信念，”Krishna说，“我理解他们追逐的目标，但这与我是否同意他们是两回事。”他明确表示，自己不相信当前这套技术能够带领我们实现AGI，并估计在没有进一步技术突破的情况下，成功的可能性仅为“0-1%”。这种怀疑论在科技界并非孤例。Salesforce的Marc Benioff、谷歌大脑创始人Andrew Ng以及Mistral AI的CEO Arthur Mensch都对AGI热潮表示过怀疑。OpenAI联合创始人Ilya Sutskever也曾表示，单纯扩大算力的时代已经结束。肯定当前AI的商业价值尽管对AGI的投资回报持悲观态度，但Krishna对当前AI技术的商业应用前景十分乐观。他强调，自己的观点并非否定AI的整体价值。“我想绝对清楚地说明，我认为它将在企业中释放数万亿美元的生产力，”Krishna表示。他认为，实现AGI需要“比当前大语言模型（LLM）路径更多的技术”，并提出将硬知识与LLM融合可能是未来的一条可行路径。但即便如此，当被问及这条路径能否实现AGI时，他依然回答：“即便那样，我也只是‘也许’。”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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