高盛交易员：美股以多空对决态势迈向新一年

环球市场播报2025-12-04

高盛集团的宏观交易员Bobby Molavi将股市在迈向新一年之际的格局比作一场拳击比赛，在这场比赛中，人工智能和刺激措施这些多头驱动力，要与估值高企和信用压力等空头力量对决。　　随着标普500指数即将连续第三年录得两位数涨幅，Molavi估算，“科技股七巨头”将向美国经济注入约6000亿美元的资本支出。此外还有关于降低所得税以及发放2000美元刺激支票的讨论，这些都站在多头一边。在Molavi...

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Molavi将股市在迈向新一年之际的格局比作一场拳击比赛，在这场比赛中，人工智能和刺激措施这些多头驱动力，要与估值高企和信用压力等空头力量对决。\n　　随着标普500指数即将连续第三年录得两位数涨幅，Molavi估算，“科技股七巨头”将向美国经济注入约6000亿美元的资本支出。此外还有关于降低所得税以及发放2000美元刺激支票的讨论，这些都站在多头一边。在Molavi看来，还会有更多利好因素支撑多头的观点。\n　　“量化紧缩结束，赤字支出持续，2026年有1.2万亿美元的回购授权。我们还持续看到散户入场并逢低买入。此外在2026年还有对银行业的监管放松和资本要求放宽，”他在给客户的一份报告中写道。\n\n　　在看空的一方，Molavi表示，股市估值已被推高到几乎不给失望留下空间的程度。市场广度则恶化到过去20年最为狭窄的水平之一，并且变得“极度集中于”于一个主题：人工智能及其资本支出。这位高盛交易员还指出“人工智能循环性”抬头，并且该领域繁荣的某些方面越来越依赖于不断扩大的杠杆融资。\n　　他说，在股指走高这一表象之下，实际情况远非如此简单。他提到，人们对所谓“K型经济”的担忧日益增加，这种经济形态导致部分消费者承压、低收入家庭违约率上升，以及私募信贷领域出现新的压力。他说，劳动力市场的动态也可能从推动因素转变为阻碍因素。\n　　越来越多的华尔街策略师预计，美国股市的涨势将在2026年延续。德意志银行、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、瑞银和汇丰控股等机构都预测，在稳健盈利和美联储降息的支撑下，2026年美国股市将再度录得两位数回报。与这种乐观相对的，则是投资者对押注人工智能的犹疑，因为有关估值水平以及在算力上大举投入是否最终能转化为利润的担忧挥之不去。\n　　Molavi指出，当下这一代交易员对持续性回撤或调整缺乏“肌肉记忆”，因为过去15年经历了前所未有的牛市。“当今大多数‘玩家’只见过一种市场，”他说，这导致一代参与者习惯性地认为市场底部永远都在。\n　　“一方面，没有什么能永远持续下去，”他说。“但另一方面，这轮行情已经持续得比任何人想象的都要久很多，而那些一路坚持持有的人都获得了丰厚回报。”他表示，如果市场真的出现回调，那么最终的赢家很可能之前就经历过类似的时期。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：李桐","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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