高盛警示美国劳动力市场或现走弱迹象裁员潮或在多行业蔓延

环球网2025-11-29

【环球网财经综合报道】高盛在最新发布的一份报告中指出，美国劳动力市场可能正开始走弱，私营部门数据显示多个行业裁员活动明显增加。报告称，美国各州关于计划进行大规模裁员的申报数量已升至2016年以来的最高水平（不包括新冠疫情期间出现的异常激增），这是高盛近十年来追踪到的最显著增长。高盛援引企业裁员追踪机构Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据指出，截至10月，美国企业裁员公告...

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Christmas的数据指出，截至10月，美国企业裁员公告数量已达到除经济衰退时期外从未出现过的水平，科技、工业产品、食品与饮料等行业的裁员推动了这一数据的攀升。高盛经济学家表示，这些愈发密集的裁员信号反映出就业市场“愈发明显的疲弱迹象”，劳动者越来越难找到新工作，失业后再就业的难度显著提升。一些知名大企业也未能完全避开就业市场降温的影响。例如，亚马逊今年秋季宣布计划裁撤约1.4万个企业岗位，以精简运营并加速拥抱人工智能（AI）。高盛经济学家Manuel Abecasis与Pierfrancesco Mei在报告中称：“如果裁员持续上升，将尤其令人担忧，因为当前劳动力的招聘率较低，失业者找到新工作的难度也高于往常。”高盛引用的州级申报文件《工人调整和再培训通知》（WARN）显示，雇员超过100人的企业在进行裁员前必须提交该文件，这类申报通常能较好反映企业动向，提前揭示潜在裁员潮。除WARN通知大幅增加外，越来越多上市公司管理层在财报电话会上公开谈及潜在裁员计划。结合Challenger的统计数据，这些迹象高度暗示未来数月可能有更多企业考虑精简人员、提升效率。尽管当前每周首次申请失业救济人数仍处于低位，意味着官方统计数据可能尚未充分反映劳动力市场的恶化程度，但高盛提醒，失业救济申请数据通常滞后于私营部门裁员追踪数据约两个月，这可能预示着随着冬季到来，联邦层面的失业数据或将出现上升。对于外界担忧AI正在推动企业削减人手的看法，高盛表示，现有证据并未显示AI在最新一轮裁员中发挥明显作用。研究人员在报告中称：“虽然人工智能在企业的人力决策中可能扮演越来越重要的角色，但目前尚缺乏直接由AI引发裁员的明确证据。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 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高盛警示美国劳动力市场或现走弱迹象 裁员潮或在多行业蔓延

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高盛警示美国劳动力市场或现走弱迹象裁员潮或在多行业蔓延