“奶业老二”光环褪色，蒙牛近两年减少百亿营收，上半年营收净利均下滑，多次因被投诉牛奶变质或暴露品控漏洞与战略短板

珈说财经11-28

当清晨的牛奶成为都市人生活标配，中国液态奶行业却在2025年迎来刺骨寒意。2025年8月，乳业巨头蒙牛发布的2025年中期业绩报告显示，2025年上半年，公司营收415.7亿元同比下滑6.9%，净利润20.46亿元同比骤降16.4%，这已是其连续两年中期业绩“双降”。从2023年同期的511.2亿元营收缩水至如今的415.7亿元，百亿规模的蒸发不仅是蒙牛的收入下滑，也撕开了整个液态奶行业增长停滞的...

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Mengniu has reduced its revenue by tens of billions in the past two years. In the first half of the year, its revenue and net profit have declined. It has been complained many times about milk deterioration or exposed quality control loopholes and strategic shortcomings","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02319":0.9},"content_text":"当清晨的牛奶成为都市人生活标配，中国液态奶行业却在2025年迎来刺骨寒意。2025年8月，乳业巨头蒙牛发布的2025年中期业绩报告显示，2025年上半年，公司营收415.7亿元同比下滑6.9%，净利润20.46亿元同比骤降16.4%，这已是其连续两年中期业绩“双降”。从2023年同期的511.2亿元营收缩水至如今的415.7亿元，百亿规模的蒸发不仅是蒙牛的收入下滑，也撕开了整个液态奶行业增长停滞的伤疤。在权威媒体新浪旗下黑猫投诉平台，超过6970条投诉中涉及蒙牛。例如，蒙牛不给售后，蒙牛纯牛奶变质等。在业绩滑坡、品控失控、战略迷茫的三重压力下，蒙牛的破局之路，似乎比行业寒冬更显漫长。业绩连续下滑，核心业务承压蒙牛半年报的核心数据堪称“触目惊心”，而真正的风险藏在业务结构的坍塌之中。作为营收支柱的液态奶业务上半年入账321.9亿元，同比跌11.2%，直接拖垮了整体业绩；反观冰淇淋、其他业务虽有双位数增长，但38.8亿元、14.5亿元的营收规模，根本无力填补液态奶留下的窟窿。这种“一损俱损”的格局，暴露了蒙牛对核心业务的过度依赖，也印证了其业务多元化的失效。蒙牛将业绩下滑归咎于“行业遇冷”，尼尔森IQ数据也显示1-6月全国液态奶销售额降幅从7.5%扩大至9.6%。但同为头部乳企，为何蒙牛的降幅远超行业平均？答案藏在其曾经引以为傲的全产业链布局中。自2013年起，蒙牛通过收购现代牧业、圣牧高科等牧场构建“奶源壁垒”，如今这一壁垒却成了沉重包袱——2024年现代牧业巨亏14.17亿元，蒙牛因此承担8.27亿元损失；2025年上半年现代牧业亏损仍在持续，直接侵蚀着蒙牛的利润空间。行业下行期的“蝴蝶效应”正在发酵：原奶过剩导致乳企停收，牧场“倒奶杀牛”的极端事件重现；新生儿数量下降抽走长期需求，现制茶饮分流即饮消费，地方乳企凭借新鲜度优势反攻市场。而蒙牛既未建立奶价对冲机制，又未在消费端找到新增长点，只能在“成本涨、售价稳、需求降”的三角困境中被动挣扎。36家上市乳企中“双增”者寥寥的行业背景，更凸显出蒙牛作为头部企业的抗风险能力下滑——本该是风浪中的压舱石，如今却成了随波逐流的扁舟。超6970条投诉中涉及不给售后，牛奶变质等，或反应品控失守与口碑下滑业绩下滑尚可归咎于行业周期，但品牌信任的崩塌，只能是蒙牛自身的管理失责。在权威媒体新浪旗下黑猫投诉平台，超过6970条投诉中涉及蒙牛。例如，蒙牛不给售后，蒙牛纯牛奶变质，蒙牛特仑苏变质无人处理等。此外，2025年以来，蒙牛产品质量问题集中爆发：家长在特仑苏中发现塑料异物，孩童饮用后肠胃不适；网购的低脂高钙奶开封即酸败结块，消费者索赔却遭遇客服“踢皮球”。从常温奶到低温酸奶，从线下到线上，质量问题的泛化，说明这不是偶然失误，而是生产质检、仓储物流全链条的系统性漏洞。更令人失望的是品牌在信任危机中的应对姿态——不是主动担责，而是靠虚假宣传与霸王条款消耗口碑。有消费者举报，部分“低脂”“脱脂”产品营养成分与标注不符；抖音直播承诺的“临期产品无条件退换”，实际却以“已拆封”为由拒绝。在乳制品这种高度依赖信任的行业，蒙牛的操作引发深度思考：当家长不敢给孩子喝特仑苏，当消费者对营养标注存疑，其在存量市场的竞争力只会加速流失。这种信任危机的背后，或是蒙牛对“规模优先”的路径依赖。为了保住市场份额，其将资源集中于渠道压货，却在品控上不断妥协；为了降低成本，冷链物流的管控标准一降再降，导致低温产品变质问题频发。当竞品在强调“极致新鲜”“全程溯源”时，蒙牛却在品控与售后的基本盘上持续失守，这种战略取舍的错位，正在将多年积累的品牌价值一点点耗尽。破局“迷途”，背后品控漏洞与战略短板何解？面对内外交困，蒙牛并非没有提出破局方案，但其“全产业链优化”“业务结构调整”的口号，终究停留在纸面。上游端，明知联营牧场风险传导严重，却既不建立奶价对冲机制，也不推进自有牧场精细化管理，依旧被动承受市场波动；核心业务上，喊着“突破常温奶依赖”，却在低温奶冷链建设上投入吝啬，新品研发只敢做口味调整的浅层创新，根本无法满足消费者对健康、品质的升级需求。所谓的“一体两翼”多元化战略，或成为“规模虚增”的幌子。冰淇淋业务的高增长靠低价促销换来，利润薄如纸片；奶酪业务在C端市场存在感不高，16.8亿元的营收增速仅2.5%；国际化业务更是“烧钱黑洞”，印尼市场的价格战持续吞噬利润，非洲市场投入多年未见回报，与雀巢等国际乳企的本地化运营能力相差甚远。最致命的是核心能力的缺失：例如半年推出百款新品却无一款爆款，或暴露研发投入的吝啬与创新能力的匮乏；管理层焕新后战略执行反而更显犹豫，凸显组织协同的失效。在液态奶行业拐点尚未到来之际，蒙牛若不能打破“重规模、轻品质”“重口号、轻执行”的积弊，不能快速补齐品控、研发、供应链的深层短板，恐将在行业周期低谷中进一步丧失市场话语权。曾经的乳业巨头，下一步如何回身，全看其能否真正放下路径依赖，直面自身的病灶。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2587176599","isCrawlerRequest":true}