小摩反驳“AI泡沫论”，预测明年标普500有望涨20%至8200点！

市场资讯2025-11-27

来源：智通财经网　　摩根大通私人银行表示，标普500指数在 2026 年有望延续其多年来强劲的回报态势。今年截至目前，该指数已上涨 16%，而在前两年的涨幅至少为 23%。该公司的基本预测是，经济增速的再度加快、强劲的盈利表现以及AI技术的稳步发展，将推动该指数在明年升至 7400 点，较当前水平上涨约 9%。如果这些有利因素足够强劲，该指数甚至可能飙升至 8200 点，这意味着从现在到明年年底...

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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2025-11-27/doc-infyvhsn8463600.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：智通财经网\n　　摩根大通私人银行表示，标普500指数在 2026 年有望延续其多年来强劲的回报态势。今年截至目前，该指数已上涨 16%，而在前两年的涨幅至少为 23%。该公司的基本预测是，经济增速的再度加快、强劲的盈利表现以及AI技术的稳步发展，将推动该指数在明年升至 7400 点，较当前水平上涨约 9%。如果这些有利因素足够强劲，该指数甚至可能飙升至 8200 点，这意味着从现在到明年年底...</p>\n\n<a 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year!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":1.5,"ESmain":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"VOO":1.5,"SPY":1.5},"content_text":"来源：智通财经网\n　　摩根大通私人银行表示，标普500指数在 2026 年有望延续其多年来强劲的回报态势。今年截至目前，该指数已上涨 16%，而在前两年的涨幅至少为 23%。该公司的基本预测是，经济增速的再度加快、强劲的盈利表现以及AI技术的稳步发展，将推动该指数在明年升至 7400 点，较当前水平上涨约 9%。如果这些有利因素足够强劲，该指数甚至可能飙升至 8200 点，这意味着从现在到明年年底将上涨 20%。\n\n　　小摩乐观的预测一出，却恰逢华尔街因有关人工智能的种种担忧以及经济疲软的迹象而人心惶惶之际。过去四天里，美股上涨了 4%。这一涨势平息了那些警告称股市即将出现全面回调的看空者们的言论，而如今，美股多头的乐观情绪又开始高涨起来。\n　　对于小摩私人银行投资策略美国负责人Jacob Manoukian和全球投资策略的联合负责人Stephen Parker而言，近期导致标普500 指数从 10 月的纪录高位下跌多达 5%的市场动荡，证实了市场并未处于通常与泡沫相关的那种狂热状态之中。\n　　Parker在周二的一次采访中表示：“我们的许多客户目前手头都有大量现金。对于这些客户而言，我们与他们进行的为期 12 至 18 个月的交流内容是，这是一次绝佳的机会。我们将其视为一个买入良机，同时我们也明白这并不一定就是最低点。”\n　　该行认为，在 2026 年，技术和公用事业将是重点投资领域，因为这两类行业将受益于人工智能技术。此外，医疗保健、工业和金融行业也因多种因素（包括市场扩大、监管放松和并购活动）有望表现良好。\n　　该公司还建议客户将诸如基础设施、实物资产和黄金等“缓冲因素和减震器”纳入投资组合，以防范通胀。该公司表示，私人市场将继续为获取收益提供机会。\n　　Manoukian表示：“我们坚信，我们正处于一种更为结构性的转变之中，公共市场与私人市场的差异正变得越来越小。如果想要以主题化的方式进行投资，避免涉足私人市场，那实际上就是将自己与人工智能生态系统中最具活力和创新性的领域隔离开来。”\n　　这家私人银行的乐观预测与其投资银行的股票研究团队的观点一致。策略师Dubravko Lakos-Bujas认为，标普500 指数将在 2026 年底从当前水平上涨约 10%至 7500 点，这得益于强劲的盈利增长以及美联储的降息举措——如果通胀降温能让官员们比预期更多次地放松货币政策，该指数甚至有可能达到 8000 点。\n　　金融机构的初步预测显示，分析师们普遍预计到 2026 年市场会呈现强劲增长态势。德意志银行的Binky Chadha预计，到 2026 年底，标普500指数将上涨约 18%，达到 8000 点。摩根士丹利的策略师团队预计，从现在起一年后，该指数将上涨至 7800 点。\n　　尽管摩根大通私人银行呈现出一片乐观的景象，但策略师们仍考虑到了一种悲观的情景，即如果人工智能主题和经济出现衰退，标普500指数可能会跌至约 4600 点，跌幅约为 32%。\n　　对于Manoukian而言，尽管这项技术带来了诸多机遇，但倘若模型发展停滞或支出无法实现盈利，那也将存在“巨大风险”。而对于Parker来说，如果通胀再度加速，而官员们又因面临政治压力而持续采取宽松政策，那么美联储的独立性就可能成为宏观经济方面的一个潜在问题。但目前，企业盈利状况良好以及经济的强劲表现使他们仍保持着乐观的预期。\n　　Manoukian表示：“今年市场的情况其实非常简单且极具说服力，那就是美国企业每季度的业绩都超出了预期，使得标普500指数实现了 15% 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