中国财险(2328.HK)：车险与非车险发展齐头并进资负共振驱动利润快速增长

中信建投证券11-25

核心观点从前三季度看，公司坚持车险业务内涵式发展、商业非车险创新发展，公司车险与非车险业务均实现强劲的盈利增长，受益于公司深化经营管理降本提质增效，持续提升核保理赔质效，加强销售费用精细化管理，不断优化费用投入，带动公司整体承保利润同比+130.7%，而且总投资收益率在去年同期高基数下进一步改善，带动归母净利润同比+50.5%，资负两端均有亮眼表现。事件中国财险披露2025 年三季度业绩公司前...

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HK): The development of auto insurance and non-auto insurance goes hand in hand, and the negative resonance of capital drives rapid profit growth","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02328":1.5},"content_text":"核心观点从前三季度看，公司坚持车险业务内涵式发展、商业非车险创新发展，公司车险与非车险业务均实现强劲的盈利增长，受益于公司深化经营管理降本提质增效，持续提升核保理赔质效，加强销售费用精细化管理，不断优化费用投入，带动公司整体承保利润同比+130.7%，而且总投资收益率在去年同期高基数下进一步改善，带动归母净利润同比+50.5%，资负两端均有亮眼表现。事件中国财险披露2025 年三季度业绩公司前三季度实现承保利润148.65 亿元，同比+130.7%。其中，保险服务收入同比+5.9%至3859.21 亿元，综合成本率同比-2.1pct 至96.1%。公司实现归母净利润402.68 亿元，同比+50.5%。简评1. 整体业绩：归母净利润增速亮眼，总投资收益稳健提升前三季度公司归母净利润同比+50.5%至402.68 亿元，主因承保利润同比+130.7%至148.65 亿元、总投资收益同比+33.0%至359.0 亿元。2. 负债端：车与非车险齐头并进，非车承保同比扭亏为盈承保利润增加主要由综合成本率改善驱动。公司深化经营管理降本提质增效，持续提升核保理赔质效，加强销售费用精细化管理，不断优化费用投入。前三季度综合成本率同比-2.1pct 至96.1%，另外保险服务收入同比+5.9%至3859.21 亿元，其中 机动车辆险与非机动车辆险的保险服务收入分别同比+3.7%、+9.3%至2276.32 亿元、1582.89 亿元。分险种来看，承保利润增加主要由车险驱动。车险前三季度实现承保利润同比+64.8%至 117.29 亿元，主要受益于车险综合成本率同比改善2.0pct 至94.8%。非车险同比扭亏为盈，实现承保利润31.36 亿元，综合成本率同比-2.5pct 至98.0%。3. 资产端：投资收益在去年同期高基数上持续同比大幅增长2025 年前三季度，公司实现总投资收益同比+33.0%至359.0 亿元，未年化总投资收益率同比+0.8pct 至5.4%，预计主要受益于前三季度资本市场上涨，公司配置结构的优化放大了市场上涨的正向效应。4. 投资建议：资产端业绩弹性大，负债端改善动能强，建议重点关注从前三季度看，公司坚持车险业务内涵式发展、商业非车险创新发展，公司车险与非车险业务均实现强劲的盈利增长，受益于公司深化经营管理降本提质增效，持续提升核保理赔质效，加强销售费用精细化管理，不断优化费用投入，带动公司整体承保利润同比+130.7%，而且总投资收益率在去年同期高基数下进一步改善，带动归母净利润同比+50.5%，资负两端均有亮眼表现。 估值方面，截至11 月24 日收盘，公司2025 年PB 为1 .2 3倍，股息率为4.2%。我们预计公司2025/ 2026/2027 年的归母净利润增速分别为43.5%/ 13.7%/ 9.7%，给予公司未来12 个月目标价23.09 港元，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：市场竞争加剧超预期：车险自主定价系数范围扩大使得险企拥有了更大的调降车险折扣系数的能力； 虽然整体而言我们认为目前车均保费继续下降空间不大，且当前仅有少数签单接近定价系数下限，因此车险自主定价系数范围的扩大使得行业整体降价的可能性较小；但部分中小险企仍有可能会通过低价获取客户， 从而使得车险行业竞争加剧。若市场竞争加剧超预期，则公司可能会面临保费收入下降、市场份额缩小等情况。车险赔付率上升超预期：若车险赔付率上升超预期则可能会导致公司车险业务承保盈利出现大幅下滑。自然灾害风险影响超预期：若发生重大自然灾害公司保险赔付率将大幅上升，从而导致公司综合成本率上行，给公司业绩造成负面影响。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2586424992","isCrawlerRequest":true}

中国财险(2328.HK)：车险与非车险发展齐头并进 资负共振驱动利润快速增长

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中国财险(2328.HK)：车险与非车险发展齐头并进资负共振驱动利润快速增长