即时零售难担大任！双倍高价、开封不退、闪购不适合小家电品

知常容11-26

今年烧掉过千亿资金的外卖大战，源于京东对美团闪购进入数码家电市场的“反击”，而最近的美团闪购、淘宝闪购双十一翻倍增长，更让即时零售成为了最新的互联网热点。闪购的“即时满足”满足了消费者的最新需求，更有人预测未来闪购会从目前实物电商总盘子不到5%的份额，快速成长到20%的份额，美团会成为电商的新巨头。但最新的一次草根研究，彻底坚定了我的结论：即时零售的确有很好的发展前途，增速会很快，但是即时零售因为...

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不高兴的小欣
11-26
不高兴的小欣
只能说当前即使零售不完善，电商早期远比现在即使零售混乱的多，卖完货人跑路了都屡见不鲜

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Double high price, non-refundable after opening, flash sale is not suitable for small household 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07:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"即时零售难担大任！双倍高价、开封不退、闪购不适合小家电品","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586400356","media":"知常容","summary":"今年烧掉过千亿资金的外卖大战，源于京东对美团闪购进入数码家电市场的“反击”，而最近的美团闪购、淘宝闪购双十一翻倍增长，更让即时零售成为了最新的互联网热点。双倍高价、开封不退，这叫我以后还怎么敢用美团闪购买电器？即时零售必须当地备货，所以商家只能是很分散、也极度本地化，而美团闪购现在是为了大量招商，所以对商家的政策肯定比较宽松，同时商家备货成本高、用户少，所以必须高价。","content":"<html><body><article><p>今年烧掉过千亿资金的外卖大战，源于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>闪购进入数码家电市场的“反击”，而最近的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>闪购、淘宝闪购双十一翻倍增长，更让即时零售成为了最新的互联网热点。</p><p>闪购的“即时满足”满足了消费者的最新需求，更有人预测未来闪购会从目前实物电商总盘子不到5%的份额，快速成长到20%的份额，美团会成为电商的新巨头。</p><p>但最新的一次草根研究，彻底坚定了我的结论：即时零售的确有很好的发展前途，增速会很快，但是即时零售因为本身的固有缺陷，无法全面取代货架电商，内容电商，未来只会在特有的领域有较大发展，比如应急需求，大品牌的直营等等。天花板可能是实物电商总盘子的10%以下。</p><p>说说我这次的亲身经历，作为深度研究电商行业，持续跟踪美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>、京东等公司并做出深度研究报告的研究员，11月18日在美团闪购上购买了SKG眼部按摩仪E4pro，实付684元。到货后发现无法连接官方app使用，于是申请退货。过程很崩溃，结果很沮丧，特别是突然发现同款商品，京东价格只要一半的时候。</p><p>虽然商品页面注明七天无理由退货，商家拒绝退货退款，理由是已开封，影响二次销售（经过我再次看页面小字，原来一次性塑封打开就不能退货）。后面打电话给美团客服，反复沟通，每次客服服务都是接下投诉，然后不了了之，24小时之后我再回拨，我再当一次祥林嫂，从头申诉一次，再过24小时回拨，根本找不到人当场处理。还让我叫跑腿把货给商家检测，结论是这个产品就没有app功能，最后说商家不同意退款，无法退货，补偿我100元。折腾一大圈，虽然我自诩三十年炒股，心态极度平和，但是最后还是非常沮丧，比我踩了股市大雷还要沮丧。</p><p>双倍高价、开封不退，这叫我以后还怎么敢用美团闪购买电器？</p><p>当然这背后的逻辑我仔细想想也想通了。即时零售必须当地备货，所以商家只能是很分散、也极度本地化，而美团闪购现在是为了大量招商，所以对商家的政策肯定比较宽松，同时商家备货成本高、用户少，所以必须高价。结果就是平台的约束力度也非常低，淘宝的店铺至少还有等级、有差评制度、有支付宝模式。</p><p>“多、快、好、省”原本是电商的四大关键指标，但目前来看，没有商业模式可以做到同时满足四大指标，客户只能选择自己最在乎的那一个。</p><p>结论，正如电商的高速发展始终没有消灭线下商店，电商渗透率最新数仅在25%左右。线上电商的几大平台，包括淘宝、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、京东、抖音、快手、视频号、美团、小红书等等，未来还会同时存在，各自拥有自己的优势区域，理论上大家都会挣钱，并且是相当挣钱。</p><p>现在的互联网下半场差不多打完，烧钱抢市场、你死我活的激烈竞争逐步落幕，各自回归，各自挣钱钱。而我们投资者可以选择那些被市场严重低估的电商股票进行投资。</p><p>美团是我的爱股，曾经为我赚了不少钱，我也曾经到北京公司参加股东大会，很喜欢这个公司，让白领们吃上了安全放心的午餐，我们十年前都是靠塞门缝里的小广告点餐的。但是我诚恳地建议公司：有舍才有得，美团优选亏了几百亿，终于停止营运，这是非常正确的。</p><p>即时零售有他的特点，建议不要什么都做，消费者的心智，美团的口碑，都是最重要的<span>资产</span>，很难做好的品类，我们干脆就放弃吧。</p><p>最后，我还能有什么渠道投诉，欢迎有经验的朋友给我提示，谢谢。我不会气急败坏，我会持续地争取公平、正义。</p><p>-End-</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251126075114444v152r54uncpps5j\"/><p><strong>推荐阅读</strong></p><p>美团Q3至暗时刻，但阿里不会永远烧钱</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251126075122550v152b847j3d1xzy\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251126075130a4ba5c9c&s=b><strong>知常容</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年烧掉过千亿资金的外卖大战，源于京东对美团闪购进入数码家电市场的“反击”，而最近的美团闪购、淘宝闪购双十一翻倍增长，更让即时零售成为了最新的互联网热点。闪购的“即时满足”满足了消费者的最新需求，更有人预测未来闪购会从目前实物电商总盘子不到5%的份额，快速成长到20%的份额，美团会成为电商的新巨头。但最新的一次草根研究，彻底坚定了我的结论：即时零售的确有很好的发展前途，增速会很快，但是即时零售因为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251126075130a4ba5c9c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"83690":"美团-WR","LU0543330483.HKD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0326948709.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ASIAN TOTAL RETURN \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0828237940.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251126075130a4ba5c9c&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2586400356","content_text":"今年烧掉过千亿资金的外卖大战，源于京东对美团闪购进入数码家电市场的“反击”，而最近的美团闪购、淘宝闪购双十一翻倍增长，更让即时零售成为了最新的互联网热点。闪购的“即时满足”满足了消费者的最新需求，更有人预测未来闪购会从目前实物电商总盘子不到5%的份额，快速成长到20%的份额，美团会成为电商的新巨头。但最新的一次草根研究，彻底坚定了我的结论：即时零售的确有很好的发展前途，增速会很快，但是即时零售因为本身的固有缺陷，无法全面取代货架电商，内容电商，未来只会在特有的领域有较大发展，比如应急需求，大品牌的直营等等。天花板可能是实物电商总盘子的10%以下。说说我这次的亲身经历，作为深度研究电商行业，持续跟踪美团、快手、唯品会、京东等公司并做出深度研究报告的研究员，11月18日在美团闪购上购买了SKG眼部按摩仪E4pro，实付684元。到货后发现无法连接官方app使用，于是申请退货。过程很崩溃，结果很沮丧，特别是突然发现同款商品，京东价格只要一半的时候。虽然商品页面注明七天无理由退货，商家拒绝退货退款，理由是已开封，影响二次销售（经过我再次看页面小字，原来一次性塑封打开就不能退货）。后面打电话给美团客服，反复沟通，每次客服服务都是接下投诉，然后不了了之，24小时之后我再回拨，我再当一次祥林嫂，从头申诉一次，再过24小时回拨，根本找不到人当场处理。还让我叫跑腿把货给商家检测，结论是这个产品就没有app功能，最后说商家不同意退款，无法退货，补偿我100元。折腾一大圈，虽然我自诩三十年炒股，心态极度平和，但是最后还是非常沮丧，比我踩了股市大雷还要沮丧。双倍高价、开封不退，这叫我以后还怎么敢用美团闪购买电器？当然这背后的逻辑我仔细想想也想通了。即时零售必须当地备货，所以商家只能是很分散、也极度本地化，而美团闪购现在是为了大量招商，所以对商家的政策肯定比较宽松，同时商家备货成本高、用户少，所以必须高价。结果就是平台的约束力度也非常低，淘宝的店铺至少还有等级、有差评制度、有支付宝模式。“多、快、好、省”原本是电商的四大关键指标，但目前来看，没有商业模式可以做到同时满足四大指标，客户只能选择自己最在乎的那一个。结论，正如电商的高速发展始终没有消灭线下商店，电商渗透率最新数仅在25%左右。线上电商的几大平台，包括淘宝、拼多多、京东、抖音、快手、视频号、美团、小红书等等，未来还会同时存在，各自拥有自己的优势区域，理论上大家都会挣钱，并且是相当挣钱。现在的互联网下半场差不多打完，烧钱抢市场、你死我活的激烈竞争逐步落幕，各自回归，各自挣钱钱。而我们投资者可以选择那些被市场严重低估的电商股票进行投资。美团是我的爱股，曾经为我赚了不少钱，我也曾经到北京公司参加股东大会，很喜欢这个公司，让白领们吃上了安全放心的午餐，我们十年前都是靠塞门缝里的小广告点餐的。但是我诚恳地建议公司：有舍才有得，美团优选亏了几百亿，终于停止营运，这是非常正确的。即时零售有他的特点，建议不要什么都做，消费者的心智，美团的口碑，都是最重要的资产，很难做好的品类，我们干脆就放弃吧。最后，我还能有什么渠道投诉，欢迎有经验的朋友给我提示，谢谢。我不会气急败坏，我会持续地争取公平、正义。-End-推荐阅读美团Q3至暗时刻，但阿里不会永远烧钱","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"83690":0.9,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"MPNGY":0.6,"03690":0.9,"METmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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