AI热潮引爆内存芯片“超级周期”，供应短缺及涨价或延续至2026年

智通财经11-27

智通财经获悉，包括戴尔科技(DELL.US)、惠普(HPQ.US)在内的多家科技公司警告称，由于人工智能(AI)基础设施建设带来的需求激增，明年可能出现内存芯片供应短缺。包括小米集团在内的消费电子制造商已发出潜在涨价警告，而联想集团等企业则开始囤积内存芯片以应对预期中的成本上升。市场研究机构Counterpoint Research本月预测，到明年第二季度，内存模组价格将上涨50%。内存芯片供应...

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Parekh在与分析师的电话会议上承认，内存价格存在“轻微的顺风”，一些“新产品的成本结构确实略高”。但他强调，苹果正在很好地管理成本。与联想类似，苹果作为电子供应链中许多厂商的最大客户(即使不是最大客户)之一的地位，有助于其确保持续供应的有利条款。内存芯片“超级周期”已至！供应短缺或延续至2026年在ChatGPT于2022年11月发布并引发生成式AI热潮，以及全球掀起AI数据中心建设热潮之后，内存芯片制造商开始将更多产能分配给高带宽内存(HBM)芯片。AI内存订单正挤压其他电子产品的内存供应来自中国竞争对手的成熟芯片竞争日益激烈，也促使控制着全球约70%的DRAM芯片市场的三星和SK海力士这两家公司加速向高端芯片转移。这些厂商自2025年初起便陆续调整战略，逐步减少乃至计划在2025年底至2026年初完全停止DDR4内存颗粒的生产，将产能全面转向利润更高、技术更先进的DDR5、HBM等产品。摩根士丹利预计，包括谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、微软和CoreWeave在内的科技巨头，今年将在人工智能基础设施上投入4000亿美元。而这场AI繁荣，又恰逢传统数据中心和个人电脑迎来新的更新换代周期。分析师指出，加上手机销量超预期，这共同加剧了非HBM内存芯片的供应紧张，并推高了其价格。据悉，RAM以4GB DDR4X为例，颗粒现货市场从今年初最低7美元/颗涨到11月中旬的30美元/颗以上，上涨3—4倍;闪存以64G eMMC为例，从年初的3.2美元/颗上涨到近期的8美元/颗以上，涨幅接近1.5倍。另外，随着海外AI服务器对eSSD的需求增加，NAND闪存也紧跟DRAM颗粒之后开始大幅涨价。随着普通内存芯片的供应已趋紧，全球内存芯片行业似乎正加剧迈入许多分析师所称的“超级周期”，设备制造商正疯狂囤积内存芯片。半导体分销商Fusion Worldwide总裁Tobey Gonnerman表示：“过去一两个月需求激增。市场变化确实快得惊人。抢购行为正在加剧，且将持续升级。客户普遍采取了双倍/三倍下单策略，这与以往多次短缺时的情形如出一辙。”内存芯片价格的大幅上涨推动三星电子、SK海力士以及美光科技(MU.US)的股价在近几个月以来大幅上涨。SK海力士上月表示，其明年的全部内存芯片产能已售罄，而美光科技预计供应紧张局面将持续到2026年。专注于NAND生产的日本铠侠控股公司的股票自去年12月上市以来已上涨数倍，这同样受益于紧张的供应环境。中芯国际指出，在制造商优先为英伟达(NVDA.US)供货的背景下，内存短缺正在显现。该公司警告，内存短缺可能限制2026年汽车与电子产品生产。CLSA韩国证券研究主管Sanjeev Rana在三星电子上月发布财报后表示：“所有与内存相关的产品——无论是先进内存还是传统内存——需求都极为旺盛，而供应正在落后。”“我们很可能会看到DRAM和NAND的涨价趋势从现在起持续数个季度。”财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：栎树","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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