华尔街齐声看好新兴市场：2026将再迎强劲一年！

智通财经2025-11-28

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街各大银行正准备迎接新兴市场领域又一个强劲的年份。它们预计，美元的疲软以及人工智能领域的投资热潮将进一步推动这一资产类别的发展。这些有利因素预计将进一步推动新兴市场的增长，其中以本币计价的债券为投资者带来了 7%的回报率，这是自 2020 年以来的最佳回报率，而货币指数也上涨了超过 6%。摩根士丹利的策略师表示，由于美国经济放缓，美联储可能会进一步降息，因此这一涨势有望持续...

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Lord表示：“美联储降息将对美元造成下行压力。这有助于美国国债收益率下降，并为新兴市场创造有利的环境。”这一前景还取决于新兴市场货币相对于美元的升值情况。一个追踪八个新兴市场套利交易收益(通过做空美元来实现)的指数今年已上涨逾 12%，在美元近期下跌的背景下表现尤为强劲，这是自全球金融危机以来的最佳表现。其他几家银行也持这种乐观态度，美国银行和高盛也预测美元将会走软。美国银行的策略师预计，新兴市场的本地债券明年将有超过 10%的回报率，并特别推荐土耳其里拉和巴西雷亚尔作为他们的最佳套利交易选择。由David Hauner领衔的策略师们在一份报告中写道：“美国银行的基准预测是美元走软;利率降低;油价走低;股票价格适度上涨。”不过他们也警告称，当前的市场波动可能会高于过去六个月的水平。他们表示：“历史经验表明，风险溢价通常不会长期保持如此低的水平。”据摩根大通公司称，另一个重要的支撑因素是各公司宣布的在人工智能领域的巨额资本支出计划。该公司预测，到 2028 年，美国与人工智能相关的资本支出将达到 6280 亿美元。该行表示，这一影响将通过技术出口和金属价格上涨在新兴市场中显现出来。由Luis Oganes领导的摩根大通策略师团队表示，他们仍看好新兴货币和当地债券市场，预计新兴债券基金明年将获得 400 亿至 500 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