别只盯着英伟达和甲骨文CDS，美国“当红PE”Blue Owl暴雷，影响万亿私募市场

华尔街见闻11-21

高盛最新报告发出警示，美国私募信贷巨头Blue Owl因基金合并计划夭折引发股价暴跌，同时面临投资者赎回激增的流动性压力。这一风险事件暴露出1.7万亿美元私募信贷市场的深层裂痕，其影响已超越单一公司范畴，正在动摇支撑AI基建等宏大叙事的核心融资渠道。当全市场的目光都聚焦于英伟达与甲骨文的信用违约互换（CDS）和人工智能热潮时，华尔街资深人士发出警示：真正的风险或许潜藏于他处。高盛Delta-One...

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market","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fdc3bb68cbbc9c9cf1942e75e648637","symbols_score_info":{"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"ORCL":2,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"OWL":2,"NVDD":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVD3.UK":0.6},"content_text":"高盛最新报告发出警示，美国私募信贷巨头Blue Owl因基金合并计划夭折引发股价暴跌，同时面临投资者赎回激增的流动性压力。这一风险事件暴露出1.7万亿美元私募信贷市场的深层裂痕，其影响已超越单一公司范畴，正在动摇支撑AI基建等宏大叙事的核心融资渠道。当全市场的目光都聚焦于英伟达与甲骨文的信用违约互换（CDS）和人工智能热潮时，华尔街资深人士发出警示：真正的风险或许潜藏于他处。高盛Delta-One部门主管Rich Privorotsky在最新报告中直言：“也许我们更应关注的是Blue Owl（OWL）与Capital One（COF）。”作为美国私募信贷市场的“当红”巨头，Blue Owl近期遭遇重挫，正暴露出这一规模达1.7万亿美元市场的深层裂痕。据彭博社报道，本周三Blue Owl突然宣布取消旗下两只私募信贷基金的合并计划，这一逆转致其股价跌至2023年以来最低点。该合并原拟将私募工具并入公开上市的Blue Owl Capital Corp.（OBDC），但因投资者可能面临高达20%的账面损失而引发市场剧烈反弹及监管关注。Blue Owl联席创始人Craig Packer承认，有关私募信贷的负面报道导致了股价下挫。更严峻的是流动性压力正在浮现。涉事私募基金的赎回申请激增，第三季度批准赎回金额约6000万美元，已突破预设上限。尽管Blue Owl承诺在合并终止后于明年第一季度恢复赎回，但市场担忧若赎回潮持续，基金可能被迫限制资金外流。此前摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon已警告非银机构承销标准松动，DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach更直指该行业存在“垃圾贷款”，投资者信心正遭遇严峻考验。高盛分析进一步揭示了宏观层面的传导风险。Privorotsky指出，当市场沉醉于科技股繁荣时，“K型经济”的压力正在显现——不仅是私募巨头Blue Owl面临投资者撤离，消费金融领域Capital One也因不良资产率攀升而股价下跌。这显示从机构信贷到个人信贷，美国信贷体系的底层资产正承受货币紧缩周期的滞后冲击。交易告吹与股价重挫11月5日，Blue Owl曾宣布计划将规模18亿美元的非交易型业务发展公司（BDC）Blue Owl Capital Corp. II并入市值176亿美元的上市实体OBDC。但该方案迅速引发质疑：由于OBDC交易价格相对资产净值存在约20%折价，被收购基金投资者在转换后将面临即时账面损失。消息公布后投资者以抛售回应，不仅拖累Blue Owl母公司股价，更使OBDC年内跌幅扩大至约22%。面对市场阻力，Blue Owl于本周三早盘紧急叫停合并。Packer受访时坦言“对折价感到沮丧”，尽管同步宣布2亿美元股票回购计划，仍未能挽回市场信心。这对自2021年通过合并Owl Rock与Dyal Capital成立后一路高歌的Blue Owl而言，堪称一次罕见的公开受挫。流动性考验与赎回困局风波核心源于Blue Owl Capital Corp. II这一传统私募工具。该基金设计初衷是为投资者提供流动性通道（如上市、合并或出售），并允许季度赎回。但随着市场环境恶化，撤资请求激增。文件显示，该基金第三季度赎回申请已突破预设限额。虽然Blue Owl在宣布合并时暂停赎回，但交易终止后公司计划明年第一季度恢复该机制。市场担忧若赎回压力持续，基金管理人或将启动“闸门”机制限制资金外流。Packer表示“所有选项都在考虑范围内”，包括将基金独立上市或出售资产。管理层需在明年4月前找到解决方案，否则可能面临清算压力。这种不确定性加剧了市场对私募信贷资产流动性的忧虑。昔日宠儿遭遇行业逆风Blue Owl曾是1.7万亿美元私募信贷市场繁荣的典范。在低利率时代凭借“一站式融资”模式快速崛起，其创始人Doug Ostrover、Marc Lipschultz与Michael Rees均跻身亿万富豪之列。早期推出的BDC产品曾带来丰厚回报，上市之初未遇今日质疑。但市场风向已变。随着借款人债务负担加剧，私募信贷市场压力攀升。美联储降息预期反而压缩贷款机构利润空间，机构为争夺交易被迫收紧利差。摩根大通CEO Dimon早前就First Brands Group等公司破产案例警示非银机构承销标准恶化，Gundlach更直言私募信贷领域的“垃圾贷款”可能引发金融危机。高盛预警：被忽视的风险当市场紧盯英伟达等AI概念股时，高盛的警示显得尤为尖锐。Privorotsky指出，投资者过度关注科技巨头CDS，却忽略了Blue Owl与Capital One传递的信号。报告强调，Capital One近期股价下跌约5%，内部人士减持及不良冲销率上升（增幅42个基点，远超19个基点的季节性常态）均是警报。这反映“K型经济”正侵蚀中下层借款人，压力从底层向中产蔓延。尽管摩根士丹利等机构预测未来数年AI基建存在1.5万亿美元融资缺口，其中约8000亿美元可能由私募信贷填补，但当前市场动荡表明，私募信贷或是支撑该宏大叙事中最脆弱的一环。上市BDC ETF未能跟随大盘反弹，与信贷市场整体出现明显背离。若这一关键融资渠道因流动性危机受阻，其影响将远超单一公司的股价波动。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2585709167","isCrawlerRequest":true}