伯克希尔“买入谷歌”不像是巴菲特的决策？

华尔街见闻11-22

伯克希尔近期大举建仓谷歌，更以约40倍自由现金流的高溢价买入。有观点指出，这笔交易同时触碰了巴菲特的两个“禁区”：模糊难懂的技术和过高的估值。为一家业务依赖于“尚未得到验证的技术”的公司支付如此高的溢价，是一个典型的“非巴菲特式”举动。猜测这可能是巴菲特继任者Greg Abel主导的策略转向信号。巴菲特经常告诫投资者，“永远不要投资一家你无法理解的企业”。然而，他执掌的伯克希尔哈撒韦近期却做了一个...

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Kaissar分析，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司对谷歌母公司Alphabet的最新投资，同时触碰了巴菲特的两个“禁区”：模糊难懂的技术和过高的估值。将不透明的技术与高昂的估值结合起来，你肯定会失去巴菲特。在他看来，谷歌这笔交易直接挑战了巴菲特“不投看不懂的生意”的黄金法则，正是这一原则曾帮助伯克希尔成功避开上世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫。更关键的是，高昂的买入价格是另一个疑点。文章分析，以自由现金流（而非盈利）来衡量，更能反映科技公司在AI领域的巨额资本支出。而这笔投资的估值水平也非同寻常。伯克希尔为买入Alphabet支付了约40倍的追踪自由现金流（FCF），远高于标普500指数自1991年以来约26倍的平均水平。Kaissar认为，为一家业务依赖于“尚未得到验证的技术”的公司支付如此高的溢价，是一个典型的“非巴菲特式”举动。继任者的新策略?根据伯克希尔披露的最新持仓，该公司新建仓1784万股谷歌母公司Alphabet的股票，使之一跃成为其第十大股票。而这笔交易的时机，恰逢伯克希尔权力交接的关键时刻，巴菲特即将于年底卸任。Kaissar推测，即将成为公司掌舵人的Greg Abel或许已在幕后扮演关键角色。这一决策可能预示着伯克希尔投资策略的重大转变。Kaissar表示，如果这一猜测成立，它将向市场展示一种“与伯克希尔股东所习惯的截然不同的方法”。这种新方法的核心在于，愿意“现在支付更多，以换取未来可能更高的增长”，而这恰恰是巴菲特“即便有过，也极少会冒的风险”。这一赌注也让伯克希尔直接置身于当前华尔街关于“AI交易是否过度”的激烈辩论中心。高估值下的增长赌注Kaissar认为，高估值与不透明技术的结合，通常是巴菲特会避开的组合。对Alphabet的投资，本质上是一场对未来增长的押注。他分析指出，为了使其估值回归合理水平，Alphabet需要在未来三到五年内实现13%至23%的自由现金流年均增长。然而，Alphabet的盈利能力提供了有限的支撑，其去年的自由现金流利润率约为19%，华尔街预计今年将维持在同一水平。相比之下，AI芯片领导者英伟达虽然估值更高（超过60倍自由现金流），但其利润率也“超凡脱俗”，达到44%，这为其实现高增长提供了更强劲的动力。即便如此，一些投资者仍对AI前景持谨慎态度，近期一项针对机构投资者的调查显示，45%的受访者认为AI泡沫是市场的最大风险。文章最后总结道，虽然AI巨头们或许并非泡沫，但要判断哪一家能在大规模增长实现前稳住投资者，无疑是一场“赌博”。而对Alphabet的这笔投资似乎表明，伯克希尔的新一代领导者已经准备好参与这场游戏。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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