财报季难成情绪拐点？巴克莱：美股软件股缺乏“安全标的”，资金短期只认基础设施

华尔街见闻2025-11-18

即将到来的美股软件公司Q3财报季，将成为市场情绪的拐点？巴克莱：未必！ 11月18日，据追风交易台消息，巴克莱在最新研报中称，即将到来的Q3财报季恐难成为市场情绪的积极拐点，主要原因在于市场核心的“双重担忧”并未消除：一是担心应用软件公司在AI浪潮中的具体受益路径不明朗（即“AI overhang”）；二是担心AI超大规模厂商（hyperscalers）的资本支出过高。巴克莱认为，即便这些...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759649><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>即将到来的美股软件公司Q3财报季，将成为市场情绪的拐点？巴克莱：未必！\n11月18日，据追风交易台消息，巴克莱在最新研报中称，即将到来的Q3财报季恐难成为市场情绪的积极拐点，主要原因在于市场核心的“双重担忧”并未消除：\n\n一是担心应用软件公司在AI浪潮中的具体受益路径不明朗（即“AI overhang”）；二是担心AI超大规模厂商（hyperscalers）的资本支出过高。\n\n巴克莱认为，即便这些...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759649\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BJTD4V19.USD","symbol_name":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) 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Barclays: U.S. software stocks lack \"security targets\", and funds only recognize infrastructure in the short term","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SNOW":0.9,"CRM.AU":1,"EA":1},"content_text":"即将到来的美股软件公司Q3财报季，将成为市场情绪的拐点？巴克莱：未必！\n11月18日，据追风交易台消息，巴克莱在最新研报中称，即将到来的Q3财报季恐难成为市场情绪的积极拐点，主要原因在于市场核心的“双重担忧”并未消除：\n\n一是担心应用软件公司在AI浪潮中的具体受益路径不明朗（即“AI overhang”）；二是担心AI超大规模厂商（hyperscalers）的资本支出过高。\n\n巴克莱认为，即便这些担忧可能被夸大，Q3财报也难以提供足够强劲的数据来彻底打消疑虑。这直接导致了市场的避险情绪，资金在短期内将继续抱团于被视为“安全标的”的基础设施软件股，而对应用软件保持谨慎。\n巴克莱明确表示，在基础设施领域，他们更看好MongoDB，认为其业绩超预期的可能性和明年的增长动力均高于备受追捧的Snowflake。\n市场迷雾：两大担忧压顶，财报季难破局\n巴克莱在报告开篇便点明了当前软件股投资的困境：市场似乎找不到太多“安全”的投资标的。\n报告称，这种情绪源于两个核心担忧：\n\nAI威胁论：投资者普遍担心，AI的颠覆性力量会对现有的应用软件（application software）公司造成冲击，形成所谓的“AI overhang”（AI威胁悬顶）。\n资本支出担忧：市场同时担心，为支持AI发展，那些超大规模云服务商的资本支出（CapEx）已经过高，可能影响未来的投入和生态。\n\n尽管巴克莱分析师并不同意这两种观点，但他们在报告中承认，即将到来的Q3财报数据，可能不足以提供强有力的新证据来彻底推翻市场的这些疑虑。因此，最直接的后果是，寻求确定性的投资者在短期内将继续坚守在基础设施软件这一避风港。\n宏观信号疲软：渠道调查与数据预示谨慎\n为了佐证其判断，巴克莱引用了多项宏观及行业领先指标，整体基调偏向谨慎。\n该行指出，其最新的增值分销商（VAR）渠道调查显示，Q3的增长预期出现了小幅放缓。虽然Q3通常是季节性淡季，但这无疑给Q4的前景带来了更大压力。\n\n这意味着，投资者将比以往更关注公司对未来的业绩指引，而非Q3本身的业绩数字。\n对于下一季度的展望，调研结果同样趋于谨慎。尽管所有受访者仍预期同比增长，但预期增长10-20%的受访者比例从上季度的25%降至0%，预期增长0-10%的比例则从75%升至100%。\n此外，报告中的其他图表也显示出与Q2相比更为疲软的趋势：\n就业数据：该行表示，科技行业的职位发布数据环比下降，其中，软件工程职位总发布量同比增长率较第二季度有所放缓，10月同比下降1%。标普500公司的软件工程职位发布量同比增长虽然为正，但8月至10月期间波动较大。联络中心职位发布量同比增长在9月和10月保持稳定，但仍处于负增长区间。\n\nADP就业薪资增长数据显示，8月至10月期间所有企业的薪资趋势相对稳定，但250-499名员工规模的公司出现一些疲软迹象。\n商业信心：巴克莱指出，NFIB小企业乐观指数和Paychex小企业就业指数均显示出疲软态势。\n\n巴克莱表示，唯一的亮点来自针对Salesforce (CRM)的调查，显示出客户对采用AI的紧迫感有所增强。但这更多是“未来的希望”，难以对Q3的财报产生实质性影响。\n关于Agentforce AI产品的客户兴趣调查显示：\n\n86%的受访者表示客户有\"重大兴趣\"(较上季度的63%显著提升)，且100%的受访者表示客户计划在12个月内采用，其中86%预计在3-6个月内采用(上季度为63%)。\n\n基础设施对决：为何MDB优于SNOW？\n在资金唯一青睐的基础设施领域，巴克莱对两大明星股Snowflake和 MongoDB进行了重点比较，并给出了明确的偏好：短期内更看好MDB。\nSnowflake：该行认为，这只股票无疑是今年的成功典范，年初至今股价上涨了60%（同期IGV指数仅上涨7.3%）。巴克莱认可其在数据整合以赋能AI领域的行业地位。\n\n然而，研报称，核心问题在于市场预期已经显著升高，这使得股价在财报后继续大幅上涨的难度加大。\nMongoDB：研报称，MDB今年同样上演了王者归来的故事。\n\n巴克莱认为其优势在于：\n\n\n业绩预期更易超越：目前的市场预期仍然足够低，为公司在下半年实现稳健的业绩超预期提供了空间。\n增长动力明确：公司明年将迎来更好的企业高级版（EA）续约周期，有望在机制上推动收入增长加速。\n新任CEO首秀：这将是新任CEO首次出席财报发布会。鉴于其在业内的良好声誉，这被视为一个额外的积极信号。\n\n\n基于上述判断，巴克莱将MDB的目标价从345美元上调至390美元，而SNOW的目标价也从255美元上调至290美元，以反映市场对高增长基础设施软件的偏好情绪。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2584953468","isCrawlerRequest":true}