“成长未必长期跑赢价值，股市风格轮动或更频繁”，中金公司最新研判！

中国基金报11-17

【导读】中金公司举办2026年度策略会中国基金报记者莫琳近日，中金公司举办2026年度投资策略会，以“乘势·谋新”为主题，围绕市场主题开展深入交流，共吸引超4500人报名参会。会后的媒体交流会上，中金公司首席策略分析师缪延亮、科技行业分析师陈昊、有色行业首席分析师齐丁分享了此轮牛市的来时路，并展望了牛市将走向何方。策略方面，缪延亮认为，中美经贸关系进入 “脆弱的平衡”。“脆弱”意味着尾部风险仍...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584624056?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-11-17 22:41","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2584624056","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"“成长未必长期跑赢价值，股市风格轮动或更频繁”，中金公司最新研判！","media":"中国基金报","content":"<div>\n<p>【导读】中金公司举办2026年度策略会中国基金报记者 莫琳近日，中金公司举办2026年度投资策略会，以“乘势·谋新”为主题，围绕市场主题开展深入交流，共吸引超4500人报名参会。会后的媒体交流会上，中金公司首席策略分析师缪延亮、科技行业分析师陈昊、有色行业首席分析师齐丁分享了此轮牛市的来时路，并展望了牛市将走向何方。策略方面，缪延亮认为，中美经贸关系进入 “脆弱的平衡”。“脆弱”意味着尾部风险仍...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251117224647a6ffa6fb&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“成长未必长期跑赢价值，股市风格轮动或更频繁”，中金公司最新研判！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“成长未必长期跑赢价值，股市风格轮动或更频繁”，中金公司最新研判！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-17 22:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251117224647a6ffa6fb&s=b><strong>中国基金报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【导读】中金公司举办2026年度策略会中国基金报记者 莫琳近日，中金公司举办2026年度投资策略会，以“乘势·谋新”为主题，围绕市场主题开展深入交流，共吸引超4500人报名参会。会后的媒体交流会上，中金公司首席策略分析师缪延亮、科技行业分析师陈昊、有色行业首席分析师齐丁分享了此轮牛市的来时路，并展望了牛市将走向何方。策略方面，缪延亮认为，中美经贸关系进入 “脆弱的平衡”。“脆弱”意味着尾部风险仍...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251117224647a6ffa6fb&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"02600","symbol_name":"中国铝业","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251117224647a6ffa6fb&s=b","article_id":"2584624056","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251117224647a6ffa6fb&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584624056","pubTimestamp":1763390514,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"策略方面，缪延亮认为，中美经贸关系进入 “脆弱的平衡”。“脆弱”意味着尾部风险仍可能发生，黄金是最终对冲手段。谈及股市，缪延亮认为，历史上在科技革命中，技术进步带来的需求成长，往往催生丰富的高成长性投资机会，股市呈现成长跑赢价值格局。因此在本轮AI科技革命中，成长未必持续跑赢价值，风格轮动可能比历史上科技革命时期的风格轮动更频繁。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"02600":"中国铝业","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1224709979.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","LU0096374516.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIA EQUITY INCOME \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0266512127.USD":"摩根大通环球自然资源 A(acc)","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","03993":"洛阳钼业","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","LU0061477393.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIA EQUITY INCOME \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","02899":"紫金矿业","LU1303224171.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1504937902.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"DUP\" (EUR) INC","BK1198":"黄金","BK1501":"阿里概念股","BK1505":"一带一路","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK1564":"中资券商股","ACH":"中国铝业","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","ALMMF":"Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd.","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0561508036.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0463099449.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU0266512473.USD":"JPM GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","01787":"山东黄金","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2399975544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU0828237940.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","03908":"中金公司","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345780521.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1188198961.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) INC QV","LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","LU0328353924.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0049853897.USD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (USD) INC AV"},"translate_title":"\"Growth may not outperform value in the long term, and the stock market style rotation may be more frequent\", CICC's latest research and judgment!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ACH":0.9,"03908":1.5,"03993":0.9,"02899":0.9,"01787":0.9,"02600":0.9,"ALMMF":0.9},"content_text":"【导读】中金公司举办2026年度策略会中国基金报记者 莫琳近日，中金公司举办2026年度投资策略会，以“乘势·谋新”为主题，围绕市场主题开展深入交流，共吸引超4500人报名参会。会后的媒体交流会上，中金公司首席策略分析师缪延亮、科技行业分析师陈昊、有色行业首席分析师齐丁分享了此轮牛市的来时路，并展望了牛市将走向何方。策略方面，缪延亮认为，中美经贸关系进入 “脆弱的平衡”。“脆弱”意味着尾部风险仍可能发生，黄金是最终对冲手段。同时，股市风格轮动可能更频繁，科技革命中成长长期占优，但价值也有阶段性机会。黄金牛市行情仍将持续股市风格轮动更频繁谈及此轮牛市逐渐成形的原因，缪延亮分析道，中美经贸关系经历了共生共赢阶段（2005—2016年）、经贸摩擦增加阶段（2017—2024年）后，2025年以来，中美经贸关系进入新阶段——“脆弱的平衡”，“平衡”意味着中美都有足够筹码，进行磋商协调；“脆弱”是由于中美产业链的生态位重合度提升，竞争摩擦在所难免。同时，缪延亮指出，新秩序下中美形成“平衡”，有助于中国竞争力得到重新评估，甚至应该获得更多的信心溢价，打开新的估值修复空间。而“脆弱”则意味着尾部风险仍可能发生，黄金是最终对冲手段。尤其是在国际货币秩序重构加速和强化之下，缪延亮认为当前黄金牛市行情可能演绎仍不充分，黄金具备较好的中长期配置价值。谈及股市，缪延亮认为，历史上在科技革命中，技术进步带来的需求成长，往往催生丰富的高成长性投资机会，股市呈现成长跑赢价值格局。但是在大国长期相持与竞争的状态下，容易出现资源过度投入生产，导致效率下降甚至产能过剩；而且经济活动不确定性上升，也难免影响全球经贸中长期成长空间。因此在本轮AI科技革命中，成长未必持续跑赢价值，风格轮动可能比历史上科技革命时期的风格轮动更频繁。“不同国家的市场风格也可能存在明显差异。例如从MSCI成长与价值风格指数来看，2022年11月ChatGPT发布以来，直接受益的美股呈现为成长持续跑赢价值，但MSCI除美国则呈现为价值风格整体跑赢成长，成长风格仅在少数阶段跑赢。这可能也在反映本轮科技革命并非所有经济体都将享受技术外溢。” 缪延亮进一步阐释了他的观点。有色行业或将迎来重大发展机遇有色行业首席分析师齐丁旗帜鲜明地指出，随着逆全球化趋势不断深化，在2025年上半年美国利率体系仍居高位的背景下，欧美黄金ETF的大举资金流入，也已开始体现出和央行购金类似的“去美元化”倾向，表现出与美国实际利率脱敏的特征。展望2026年，金价仍处于牛市通道，白银有望受益于金价上行和金银比价的修复，体现出强劲的上行弹性。基本金属方面，考虑到AI、电力、新能源、高端装备制造等新兴需求的崛起，以及供应侧资本开支不足和供应扰动增加，中金公司研究部认为，以铜、铝、锡为代表的基本金属有望在2026年迎来亮眼表现。新能源金属和战略性小金属方面，资源国对战略性关键矿产的管控和收储日益强化，正在重塑相关品种的供需平衡表，预计以钴、天然铀、钨、稀土、锑等为代表的品种仍将维持牛市格局，价格中枢有望系统性抬升。因此，在有色价格整体上行的背景下，叠加各国针对关键矿产资源的鼓励性政策的推动，齐丁认为，有色矿业公司有望迎来重大发展机遇期，配置价值凸显。编辑：格林校对：乔伊制作：鹿米审核：许闻注：本文封面图由AI生成","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2584624056","isCrawlerRequest":true}