美股AI牛市年末何去何从？

科创日报2025-11-19

文|黄君芝人工智能（AI）交易、甚至美股的年末可能最取决于两个人——英伟达CEO黄仁勋和美联储主席鲍威尔。而投资者将很快在北京时间周四凌晨收到英伟达的“成绩单”，黄仁勋也将在业绩电话会议上发表讲话。▌英伟达“成绩单”这份即将发布的2026财年第三季度财报能否稳住人工智能“这艘船”，对所有投资者而言至关重要，他们希望从中找到AI生态系统正朝健康方向发展的证据。美国金融产品提供商Direxion产品与...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584462919?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-11-19 19:25","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2584462919","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美股AI牛市年末何去何从？","media":"科创日报","content":"<div>\n<p>文|黄君芝人工智能（AI）交易、甚至美股的年末可能最取决于两个人——英伟达CEO黄仁勋和美联储主席鲍威尔。而投资者将很快在北京时间周四凌晨收到英伟达的“成绩单”，黄仁勋也将在业绩电话会议上发表讲话。▌英伟达“成绩单”这份即将发布的2026财年第三季度财报能否稳住人工智能“这艘船”，对所有投资者而言至关重要，他们希望从中找到AI生态系统正朝健康方向发展的证据。美国金融产品提供商Direxion产品与...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251119203229a7046136&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股AI牛市年末何去何从？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股AI牛市年末何去何从？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-19 19:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251119203229a7046136&s=b><strong>科创日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文|黄君芝人工智能（AI）交易、甚至美股的年末可能最取决于两个人——英伟达CEO黄仁勋和美联储主席鲍威尔。而投资者将很快在北京时间周四凌晨收到英伟达的“成绩单”，黄仁勋也将在业绩电话会议上发表讲话。▌英伟达“成绩单”这份即将发布的2026财年第三季度财报能否稳住人工智能“这艘船”，对所有投资者而言至关重要，他们希望从中找到AI生态系统正朝健康方向发展的证据。美国金融产品提供商Direxion产品与...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251119203229a7046136&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251119203229a7046136&s=b","article_id":"2584462919","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251119203229a7046136&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584462919","pubTimestamp":1763551535,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"文|黄君芝人工智能交易、甚至美股的年末可能最取决于两个人——英伟达CEO黄仁勋和美联储主席鲍威尔。▌英伟达“成绩单”这份即将发布的2026财年第三季度财报能否稳住人工智能“这艘船”，对所有投资者而言至关重要，他们希望从中找到AI生态系统正朝健康方向发展的证据。美国金融产品提供商Direxion产品与战略高级副总裁Ryan Lee表示，市场将密切关注英伟达对下个季度的看法。▌美联储决议美股年末走势的另一位“关键先生”无疑就是鲍威尔。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999014575.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USDHDG) INC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","SGXZ81514606.USD":"大华环球创新基金A Acc USD","LU2491050154.USD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU2461242641.AUD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","LU2452424414.USD":"BGF ESG MULTI-ASSET \"A10\" (USDHDG) INC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","LU1992135472.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion"},"translate_title":"Where will the U.S. stock AI bull market go at the end of the year?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDS":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"FOMC":1,"SSO":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":0.74,"SDS":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,"NVDU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"文|黄君芝人工智能（AI）交易、甚至美股的年末可能最取决于两个人——英伟达CEO黄仁勋和美联储主席鲍威尔。而投资者将很快在北京时间周四凌晨收到英伟达的“成绩单”，黄仁勋也将在业绩电话会议上发表讲话。▌英伟达“成绩单”这份即将发布的2026财年第三季度财报能否稳住人工智能“这艘船”，对所有投资者而言至关重要，他们希望从中找到AI生态系统正朝健康方向发展的证据。美国金融产品提供商Direxion产品与战略高级副总裁Ryan Lee表示，市场将密切关注英伟达对下个季度的看法。黄仁勋10月曾在英伟达GTC大会上透露，2025年与2026年的AI核心芯片订单额合计已达5000亿美元，其中30%已经发货。这使得一些分析师更加“贪婪”，开始期待2027年的趋势是否也能如此强劲。由于大型科技股对按市值加权的标准普尔500指数有重大影响，英伟达的报告在其他方面也将具有重要意义。Navellier & Associates创始人Louis Navellier在最新报告中表示，“科技七巨头”股票的压力导致“指数价格大幅波动”，这使得英伟达的业绩报告“成为扭转局面的关键”。此外，英伟达的评论还可能有助于缓解华尔街对科技行业高估值的担忧。Navellier表示，他“并不担心估值”，并预计抛售“迟早”会逐渐消失。Main Street Research的首席投资官James Demmert则评论称，“泡沫仍在以健康的速度膨胀，没有很快破裂的迹象。”他表示，尽管估值看起来很贵，但顶级公司的股价“低于盈利增长率”，“整体人工智能市场情绪温和看涨，而不是乐观”。Lee指出，在超大规模企业公布业绩后，市场已然知晓 AI支出究竟有多么庞大。但英伟达的业绩报告“将是一个很好的温度计”，显示这家市场领导者如何“真正抓住了这些超大规模企业已经报告的巨额支出”。他还表示，英伟达的业绩报告是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12月10日开会前“最后一个主要的广泛催化剂”，因此将是衡量感恩节后至12月初市场走势的“良好指标”。Lee还强调，黄仁勋对英伟达芯片寿命贬值的任何评论都会对市场产生连锁反应。如果黄仁勋重申英伟达图形处理器（GPU）的折旧寿命更长，投资者可能会更愿意在更广泛的超大规模设备上投资。▌美联储决议美股年末走势的另一位“关键先生”无疑就是鲍威尔。显而易见的是，如果美联储不像预期的那样迅速降息，人工智能公司将更难借钱并为他们的远大抱负提供资金，这一趋势不仅拖累了投机性更强的人工智能股票，也拖累了资本状况更好的公司。Lee解释称，专注于增长的公司“无论好坏，对降息总是会更敏感一些”。“如果利率保持在高位，一些超大规模企业将更难继续借款，”他说：“这就是投资者如此关注美联储12月会议及其之后走势的原因。”Lee表示，持续的高利率意味着超大规模企业将不得不继续利用其核心业务的现金流。虽然债务融资“并不总是一件坏事”，但如果市场认为对债务的需求持续存在，而且没有降息，这种动态可能会严重拖累超大规模云计算股。他还将近期的抛售归因于美联储官员在会议之前发表的“鹰派评论”。安联投资管理公司（Allianz Investment Management）负责投资组合管理的副总裁Charlie Ripley表示，他认为市场预计明年某个时候的最终利率将达到3%。现在的焦点是这种情况会多快到来，因此股市近期出现了一些波动。在接连两次降息后，目前美国联邦基准利率为3.75-4%。“当市场不再认为12月降息是板上钉钉的事情，而是更像是抛硬币，这将在短期内影响股市，”Ripley称，并补充称估值过高可能是投资者撤离的另一个原因。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.13","shortVersion":"4.35.13","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2584462919","isCrawlerRequest":true}