AI基建热下的台积电赚麻了！瑞银：每GW带来10–20亿美元收入！

华尔街见闻11-18

在全球云端AI服务器投资浪潮下，台积电作为主要代工厂商正迎来前所未有的增长机遇。瑞银最新研报显示，每1GW服务器项目将为台积电带来10-20亿美元的收入机会，相当于其2025年预期销售额的1.0-1.5%。随着OpenAI和多家超大规模云服务商宣布数十GW级别的服务器建设计划，台积电的收入增长潜力将远超市场预期。不同AI平台的产能需求差异显著研报分析显示，台积电在英伟达新一代AI ...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759618><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在全球云端AI服务器投资浪潮下，台积电作为主要代工厂商正迎来前所未有的增长机遇。\n瑞银最新研报显示，每1GW服务器项目将为台积电带来10-20亿美元的收入机会，相当于其2025年预期销售额的1.0-1.5%。随着OpenAI和多家超大规模云服务商宣布数十GW级别的服务器建设计划，台积电的收入增长潜力将远超市场预期。\n\n\n\n\n不同AI平台的产能需求差异显著\n\n研报分析显示，台积电在英伟达新一代AI ...</p>\n\n<a 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UBS: Bringing in $1-2 billion in revenue per GW!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.5,"TWmain":1.5,"EWT":0.6,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"在全球云端AI服务器投资浪潮下，台积电作为主要代工厂商正迎来前所未有的增长机遇。\n瑞银最新研报显示，每1GW服务器项目将为台积电带来10-20亿美元的收入机会，相当于其2025年预期销售额的1.0-1.5%。随着OpenAI和多家超大规模云服务商宣布数十GW级别的服务器建设计划，台积电的收入增长潜力将远超市场预期。\n\n\n\n\n不同AI平台的产能需求差异显著\n\n研报分析显示，台积电在英伟达新一代AI GPU平台中的实际总收入金额将逐步增长。每1GW服务器建设中，台积电从Blackwell Ultra/Rubin平台获得的收入约为11亿美元，而到Rubin Ultra/Feynman平台时将增至14-19亿美元。\n\n这一增长来自多重因素的叠加:制程工艺迁移、每机架GPU单元数量增加、CoWoS等先进封装技术应用，以及可能在2028年过渡到面板级封装技术。\n从产能消耗看，英伟达Blackwell Ultra需要约3.5千片/月产能，其中xPU芯片消耗2.3千片/月，CPU消耗0.5千片/月，网络芯片消耗0.7千片/月。CoWoS封装产能需求为2.3千片/月。博通ASIC方案效率优势明显，ASIC芯片凭借针对特定工作负载的更高效率，可能产生比GPU更多的芯片单元需求。博通为谷歌设计的TPU v7p，每1GW需要约4.9千片/月的N3产能,远高于英伟达的2-4千片/月。\n从收入占机架价值的比例看，ASIC方案为台积电带来的实际总收入金额更高，达到10-11%，而GPU方案为4-6%。具体到谷歌TPU v7p项目，台积电每1GW的收入机会可达18.95亿美元。\nAMD的AI GPU产能需求在主要厂商中最低。即将推出的MI455采用chiplet设计，每1GW仅需约1.0千片/月的N2产能，台积电收入机会约为7.46亿美元。\n\n\n\n每GW服务器建设带来的巨大商机\n瑞银报告对AI服务器投资进行拆解，对于每1GW的服务器建设，台积电需要提供约2-5千片/月(kwpm)的先进制程产能(N3或N2)，以及3-6千片/月的CoWoS先进封装产能。\n从资本支出角度看，每1GW项目将推动10-20亿美元的晶圆厂设备(WFE)投资用于逻辑芯片生产，其中包括前端产能和CoWoS封装产能。这意味着AI基础设施的每一次扩张，都将直接转化为台积电的产能需求和资本开支增长。\nOpenAI交易蕴含344亿美元收入潜力\n瑞银对OpenAI已宣布的交易进行了详细测算。OpenAI与英伟达、AMD和谷歌的交易总规模达26GW，其中英伟达10GW、AMD 6GW、谷歌10GW。\n基于这些交易，台积电的潜在收入达到344亿美元，其中来自英伟达110亿美元，AMD45亿美元，谷歌189亿美元。按照40-45%的营业利润率计算，这些项目将为台积电贡献约146亿美元的营业利润，充分体现了AI基础设施建设浪潮对台积电业绩的推动作用。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.11","shortVersion":"4.35.11","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2584311239","isCrawlerRequest":true}