AI杠杆被低估了？2万亿美元资本开支中，“融资租赁“撑起了4000亿！

华尔街见闻11-13

在AI驱动的算力“军备竞赛”中，科技巨头们正通过一种日益重要却又容易被忽视的方式为未来提供资金——租赁。据追风交易台，摩根士丹利近期发布的一份题为《AI：租赁未来》（AI: Leasing The Future）的报告显示，一种类似债务融资的“融资租赁”模式，正在成为支撑AI基础设施扩张的关键力量。报告指出，随着超大规模云服务商（Hyperscalers）以前所未有的速度扩张AI基础设施，它们...

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Future）的报告显示，一种类似债务融资的“融资租赁”模式，正在成为支撑AI基础设施扩张的关键力量。\n报告指出，随着超大规模云服务商（Hyperscalers）以前所未有的速度扩张AI基础设施，它们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3759299\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BJJMRX11.SGD","symbol_name":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc 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Among the US $2 trillion in capital expenditures, \"financial leasing\" has supported 400 billion!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"FCF":1,"USAW.SI":0.6,"AI":0.65},"content_text":"在AI驱动的算力“军备竞赛”中，科技巨头们正通过一种日益重要却又容易被忽视的方式为未来提供资金——租赁。\n据追风交易台，摩根士丹利近期发布的一份题为《AI：租赁未来》（AI: Leasing The Future）的报告显示，一种类似债务融资的“融资租赁”模式，正在成为支撑AI基础设施扩张的关键力量。\n报告指出，随着超大规模云服务商（Hyperscalers）以前所未有的速度扩张AI基础设施，它们正越来越多地采用融资租赁来获取数据中心外壳。其预计，在未来三年的2万亿美元总资本投资中，将有高达4000亿美元（占比20%）来源于此。\n\n这种模式允许科技巨头们加速产能扩张、管理流动性并锁定未来的选择权。更值得关注的是，报告数据显示，这些公司已披露了价值高达3880亿美元的“已签署但尚未开始”的租赁合同。\n这笔庞大的表外承诺，实质上是未来的“隐形负债”，将在未来数年内逐步转化为资产负债表上的使用权资产和租赁负债。这不仅锁定了未来的资本开支，也为投资者提供了一个观察各大公司AI战略决心的窗口。\n例如，报告提到甲骨文的租赁期限最长为15年，而Meta则签订了长达30年的租赁合同，反映了不同公司对未来需求的信心和战略差异。\n\n融资租赁 vs. 经营租赁：影响财报的关键“魔鬼细节”\n报告的核心在于剖析了两种租赁模式的会计差异。融资租赁在经济实质上类似于一笔用债务来购买资产的交易，其会计处理也将成本拆分为折旧（计入经营成本）和利息（计入财务费用），而本金偿还则计入融资活动现金流。\n相比之下，经营租赁更像传统的“租用”，其租金作为单一的经营费用在损益表中以直线法摊销，且所有现金支付都计入经营活动现金流。\n这种会计处理上的差异至关重要。报告强调，管理层在租赁期限、续约选项、残值担保等方面的判断，会直接决定一笔租赁被划分为“融资”还是“经营”。这意味着，两笔经济上非常相似的投资，可能因为不同公司的会计选择，而导致其财报上的债务、杠杆率和盈利能力表现出巨大差异。\n\n投资者警示：自由现金流的“陷阱”与可比性难题\n对于投资者而言，这种会计差异最大的“陷阱”在于自由现金流（FCF）的计算。报告明确指出，由于融资租赁的本金偿还被归类于“融资活动现金流”，它不会在传统的“经营现金流减去资本开支”的FCF公式中体现。这会造成投资者严重低估一家公司的真实资本投入和再投资率。\n更复杂的是，各家公司的FCF披露口径并不统一：\n\n谷歌（GOOGL）、微软（MSFT）和甲骨文（ORCL） 在其FCF计算中不包含任何融资租赁的影响。\n亚马逊（AMZN） 在其FCF指标中包含了通过融资租赁获得的资产。\nMeta（META）和亚马逊（AMZN） 则提供了扣除融资租赁本金偿还后的FCF指标。\n\n这种披露的多样性使得跨公司比较变得极为困难。摩根士丹利建议，投资者为了进行“同口径”（apples-to-apples）的公允比较，并准确评估公司可用于股息和回购的真实“自由”现金，必须手动调整自由现金流（FCF），将融资租赁的资本投入或本金偿还纳入考量。忽视这一调整，可能会对公司的估值和现金生成能力的判断产生重大偏差。\n~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\n以上精彩内容来自追风交易台。\n更详细的解读，包括实时解读、一线研究等内容，请加入【追风交易台▪年度会员】","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.11","shortVersion":"4.35.11","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2583551425","isCrawlerRequest":true}