巨头利润狂欢 VS 新贵狂烧钱：揭秘AI万亿盛宴的残酷真相

腾讯科技11-14

当全球科技巨头在AI浪潮中赚得盆满钵盈、股价屡创新高时，备受追捧的AI明星公司们却可能正在经历一场"史诗级大出血"。以OpenAI为代表的生成式AI初创公司，虽然推动着这场技术革命，自己却陷入了一个个"烧钱无底洞"。它们在芯片、云服务和数据中心上的巨额开支，如同吞噬资金的巨兽，反过来却滋养着供应商巨头们的利润增长。这不仅是财务报表上的数字游戏，更暴露出AI军备竞赛中一个尖锐问题：通往通用人工智能的...

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EchoStar 因非现金资产核销导致的亏损并驾齐驱，但OpenAI的亏损更像是真金白银的“失血”。更残酷的现实是：OpenAI当季的亏损额，相当于微软、英伟达、Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta五家公司利润增长总和的65%。这清楚地表明，AI新贵们的亏损，实际上在支撑着科技巨头的利润增长，而这还没有计算Anthropic对亚马逊利润的贡献。盈利迷局：成本跑赢收入的天价赌局AI开发商的美好愿景建立在两个前提上：一是产品能够成功变现，足以覆盖其庞大的研发和计算成本；二是投资者愿意持续\"输血\"。据估算，仅OpenAI一家公司，未来所需资金就可能超过1500亿美元。即便是行业领头羊，也对盈利时间持保守态度：OpenAI目标定在2030年，Anthropic则瞄准2028年，这意味着长期亏损已成定局。OpenAI对算力的需求尤其惊人，已承诺投入超万亿美元资金用于采购和租赁算力，与微软、甲骨文、CoreWeave和亚马逊等签订了一系列天价协议。这种旺盛需求直接推动了全球数据中心建设的热潮。根据提供给股东的数据，OpenAI预计营收将在未来几年持续翻倍，今年130亿美元收入将在明年翻番至300亿美元，2027年再翻一番。然而，成本增速预计更快，到2027年，其亏损可能扩大至超过400亿美元。按照OpenAI自身预测，要到2029年计算成本趋于平稳后，收支才能重新平衡，使其在2030年勉强实现盈利。狂热警示：当\"虚荣\"遇见\"现实\"在这场投资狂热中，许多投资者似乎忘记了那句古老格言：\"营收是虚荣，利润是理智，现金才是现实。\"尽管现有的AI聊天机器人能提供\"近乎神奇\"的体验，但它们仍然会犯低级错误、产生\"幻觉\"（编造事实），并且存在安全漏洞。产品的成熟度和商业模式也存在很大不确定性，毕竟行业发展瞬息万变，最终结果无人能预料。因此，如果投资者对AI的热情降温，或者经济衰退导致融资环境恶化，OpenAI这类公司的营收\"虚荣\"将很快被巨额亏损的\"现实\"所取代。到那时，AI初创公司惊人的现金流失，将更加痛心地映衬出科技巨头稳定盈利的现实。这场AI盛宴，对新贵们而言，确实是一场押上全部身家的豪赌。（文/腾讯科技特约编译金鹿，编辑/博阳）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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