《大空头》原型离场后，科技股面临严酷的“利润审判”！

金十数据11-14

科技巨头不断创造超高盈利的能力，支撑着投资者对它们股票的持续热情，即便其估值已高不可攀。但如果这些数字被夸大了呢？这就是著名投资者迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）在本周广受讨论的社交媒体帖子上提出的疑问。作为Scion资产管理公司的负责人，伯里最为人所知的是在2008年全球金融危机前成功押注美国房地产市场的崩盘，他最近终止了其对冲基金在美国证券交易委员会的注册。他指出，像Meta和...

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Saglimbene）表示：“我们正处于一个从‘炒作人工智能’到‘需要人工智能来证明自己’的关键时期。”问题的核心在于图形处理单元和服务器等可折旧资产价值的耗损速度。近年来，大多数科技巨头都延长了此类设备的所谓“使用寿命”估计，从而减少了影响净收入的非现金费用。今年早些时候，Meta将其使用寿命估计从4-5年延长至5年半，并估计这一变化将使其2025年的折旧费用减少29亿美元。微软和Alphabet近年来也采取了类似举措，它们表示自己已能从这些设备中榨取更多的使用价值。萨利姆贝内说：“公司总是在升级他们的服务器、网络设备和芯片，这不是一个新因素，但我们以前从未见过如此大的规模。”他补充说：“这正是让投资者感到紧张的原因。”北卡罗来纳大学凯南-弗拉格勒商学院会计学副教授斯蒂芬·格拉泽（Stephen Glaeser）认为，延长的时限是否合适难以判断。怀疑论者辩称，随着英伟达等芯片制造商加快芯片的发布速度，折旧应该加速。亚马逊采取的就是这种观点，该公司在2月将服务器设备的使用寿命从6年缩短至5年。亚马逊和微软的代表拒绝置评。Meta和Alphabet没有回应置评请求。微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉（Satya Nadella）在上个月公司的第一财季财报电话会议上，讨论了持续购买新芯片以及进行改进以从这些短寿命资产中获得更多使用价值的重要性。他在回答有关如何产生足够投资回报的问题时说：“你必须不断地进行现代化改造并折旧它们。这意味着你也要使用软件来提高效率。”随着用于计算基础设施的资本支出持续加速，这场争论比以往任何时候都更加重要。彭博社汇编的数据显示，这四家最大的支出方预计在未来12个月内，合计资本支出将增长约40%，达到4600亿美元，其中大部分将用于计算设备。即使有了这些会计操作，折旧费用仍在飙升。在2023年第四季度，Alphabet、微软和Meta的折旧成本合计约为100亿美元。而在刚刚结束的9月季度，该数字已攀升至近220亿美元。分析师预计，到明年同期，这一数字将接近300亿美元。尽管如此，这些公司在第三季度的利润还是轻松超出了华尔街的预期。根据彭博情报公司汇编的数据，随着英伟达的财报即将于下周公布，包括苹果（Apple）和特斯拉（Tesla）在内的“七巨头”的盈利，预计将比去年同期增长27%，几乎是财报季开始时预测的14%的两倍。Osaic的首席市场策略师菲尔·布兰卡托（Phil 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