软银清仓英伟达 AI投资逻辑变了吗？

金融投资报11-14

■郭施亮英伟达成为全球第一家市值冲破5万亿美元的上市公司。截至11月11日，英伟达全年涨幅高达45%。2023年和2024年，英伟达的年内涨幅分别为 240.29%和171.46%。短短三年时间，英伟达最大涨幅高达十倍。5万亿美元市值的英伟达，是否已经充分反映出未来的盈利预期？软银以58.3亿美元的金额清仓了英伟达，这一信号引发市场的高度关注。软银选择清空英伟达股票的时间点是在2025年10月，...

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240.29%和171.46%。短短三年时间，英伟达最大涨幅高达十倍。5万亿美元市值的英伟达，是否已经充分反映出未来的盈利预期？软银以58.3亿美元的金额清仓了英伟达，这一信号引发市场的高度关注。软银选择清空英伟达股票的时间点是在2025年10月，10月也是英伟达股价表现的巅峰时刻。在英伟达总市值突破5万亿美元之际，软银选择了清仓，这是否意味着AI的投资逻辑已经发生了改变呢？软银集团成立了四十多年，历史上曾经成功投资了多家知名企业，包括阿里巴巴、雅虎、英伟达、ARM、OpenAI等等。而且，软银集团参与战略投资的时间点，正处于企业高速发展的初期。例如，软银在2000年时投资了阿里巴巴，到了阿里巴巴成功上市，软银获取了巨大的投资收益。软银早在2017年就投资了英伟达，彼时持有5%的股份。虽然软银早期投资了英伟达，但对英伟达的判断也有所失误。2017年的这一笔投资，却在2019年以70亿美元清空了全部持股。时隔五年之后，2024年软银再次大举加码英伟达。但时隔一年时间，软银却再次清仓英伟达，这一次软银对英伟达的投资期限非常短暂。虽然软银有过多次成功投资的经历，但软银也并非百战百胜。软银投资英伟达并未坚定持有，而是选择反复买卖，最终导致软银错失了巨额的投资收益。然而，软银清仓英伟达背后，或反映出AI的投资风险正在显著提升，这一场由AI驱动的投资热潮，也许已经逼近了临界点。软银清仓英伟达，虽然牵涉的金额不高，却给市场传递出一种AI投资风险升温的信号。受此影响，英伟达股价下跌超过2.5%。英伟达作为全球AI的龙头，股价的涨跌将是AI股票的重要风向标。那么，AI的投资逻辑是否已经发生了变化？从各巨头的投资布局分析，继2025年采取巨额的资本支出之后，2026年各巨头继续加码AI，并且整体的资本支出比2025年更大。其中，包括Meta、谷歌、亚马逊等知名科技公司，已经宣布了2026年的资本支出计划。 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