大摩：《京东，凛冬将至》！回应来了？

上市之家2025-11-14

一份长达35页的看空报告，似要将京东打入深渊。11月9日，摩根士丹利（大摩）以《京东，凛冬将至》为题，发布了一份研报，并将京东评级下调至“减配”，直言其为未来12个月处境最差的电商股。今天，京东第三季度财报正式发布，电话会上，高管们回答的多个问题，正面回答了大摩的“指控”。大摩的三重暴击：国补退坡、增长失速与历史困局大摩的报告开门见山，直指京东的核心软肋。第一重暴击源于“政策红利”的消退。报告通过...

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The response is coming?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"09618":1.5,"JD":0.6},"content_text":"一份长达35页的看空报告，似要将京东打入深渊。11月9日，摩根士丹利（大摩）以《京东，凛冬将至》为题，发布了一份研报，并将京东评级下调至“减配”，直言其为未来12个月处境最差的电商股。今天，京东第三季度财报正式发布，电话会上，高管们回答的多个问题，正面回答了大摩的“指控”。大摩的三重暴击：国补退坡、增长失速与历史困局大摩的报告开门见山，直指京东的核心软肋。第一重暴击源于“政策红利”的消退。报告通过一项2000人的调研指出，京东是“以旧换新”等国家补贴政策最受益的平台，58%的消费者选择在京东使用补贴。然而，自8月起，国补政策已开始明显退坡，多地采取配额制或抽签制。更关键的是，调研显示83%的参与者因国补而“透支”了未来1至6个月的消费。大摩认为，这解释了为何京东电子产品及家电收入增速能从国补前的-5%飙升至今年二季度的23%，也预示了国补退坡后，其收入增速将骤降至个位数的严峻前景。第二重暴击落在被寄予厚望的“即时零售”业务上。大摩承认京东该业务初期订单峰值达2500万的成绩，但旋即指出其面临三大难题：在阿里、美团巨资投入下，市场份额已从二季度的11%滑落至三季度的8%；用户、商户、骑手三方体验均不佳，如配送慢、系统难用、骑手收入回落；最关键的是，商家盈利能力因平台成本转嫁而下滑——商家承担的用户补贴比例从0%一路升至70%-80%，并开始收取佣金和配送费。大摩甚至质疑其自营的“七鲜小厨”存在商业逻辑矛盾，并测算其即时零售业务三季度单均亏损9元，2025年总亏损可能高达340亿元。第三重暴击则基于京东过往“新业务”的失败轨迹。报告历数了“惊喜拼拼”、低价战略、直播电商等案例，指出它们均遵循“高调启动、巨额补贴、短暂爆发、陷入停滞”的相同模式。大摩据此对京东开拓新业务的能力提出质疑，认为除非即时零售能快速减亏并与核心业务产生协同，否则难言信心。面对空头的凌厉攻势，京东管理层在三季度财报电话会上，虽未点名大摩，但也隔空进行了正面说明。对于国补退坡的影响，京东CEO许冉承认高基数会带来短期行业波动，但她更强调国补驱动了行业升级，而京东在此期间进一步巩固了市场份额与供应链能力。她指出，京东的长期目标是通过产品创新（与品牌定制）、价格优势（规模与供应链优化）和服务体验（全渠道、送装一体）来持续强化用户心智和市场份额。对于亏损扩大的即时零售（外卖）业务，许冉将其定位为“长期战略”。她并未回避亏损，但展示了业务的积极变化：三季度GMV实现双位数环比增长，正餐订单占比和客单价提升，通过精细化运营和供应链创新（如七鲜小厨），单位经济模型（UE）已显著改善，投入环比收窄。她特别强调了该业务的协同价值——带动京东APP日活领先行业增长，外卖新用户转化率近50%，并显著提升了商超等品类的购物频次。她表示，外卖业务的目标是既能独立生存，又能与京东生态深度融合。此外，管理层力图描绘一幅增长动力多元化的图景：日百品类连续四个季度双位数增长，广告等服务收入加速，认为商超、时尚等仍有巨大增长空间。在AI和国际化的长期战略上，京东表示，在AI战略上，规划在未来三年会持续投入，带动各个产业共同形成万亿规模的人工智能生态。核心产品包括自研模型Joy AI、数字人、AI智能体等，广泛应用于零售、物流、健康和工业领域；此外，京东线上零售业务Joybuy已在英国、法国、德国等关键市场展开试运营。管理层将国际化定位为“最重要的长期战略之一”尽管管理层的并未逃避问题，但财报上的数字，仍然暗藏隐忧。京东第三季度实现营收2991亿元，同比增长14.9%；按非美国通用会计准则，归母净利润为58亿元，较2024年的132亿减少了56.06%。尽管外卖补贴收缩，但京东的新业务仍然亏损了157.36亿，对比二季度又增加了9.59亿。另一个危险信号来自现金流量表。今年前三季度，京东经营活动产生的现金流净额由去年同期的净流入332.04亿元，转为净流出18.88亿元。这一指标的恶化，无疑加剧了市场对其“烧钱”模式可持续性的担忧。京东的管理层正试图向市场证明，他们有能力驾驭这场复杂的转型，在巩固传统优势的同时，成功开拓第二、第三增长曲线。然而，资本市场需要的是耐心，更是实实在在的业绩改善和亏损收窄的证明。京东的“凛冬”是已然降临，还是只是转型阵痛中的“倒春寒”？我们共同期待吧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2583479518","isCrawlerRequest":true}