若特朗普“对等关税”被推翻，市场会如何反应？

智通财经网2025-11-09

一场针对特朗普政府关键关税权力的法律挑战，正让市场开始预期贸易壁垒可能出现重大、尽管或许是短暂的逆转。据追风交易台，花旗在最新报告表示，市场对特朗普政府在《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）关税案中获胜的预期已大幅降温。最高法院的初步听证会风向不利，导致预测市场显示政府胜率已从约40%骤降至27%。花旗认为，如果法院最终推翻基于IEEPA征收的“对等关税”，可能会引发一轮交易热潮，市场短期反应可能...

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fees）论：将关税重新包装为“许可费”，尽管这一想法在听证会上受到了部分法官的质疑。这意味着，即使IEEPA的直接威胁解除，关税的阴影也并不会完全散去，只是形式和实施时间可能发生变化。短期赢家与输家：关税“空窗期”的受益者如果IEEPA关税被推翻，短期内谁将受益？花旗分析如下：首先，在宏观层面，美国的实际有效关税率（ETR）将显著下降。报告估算，10月份的实际有效关税率已升至12.5%，而根据已达成的协议全面实施后的估算税率可达15.3%。一旦IEEPA被否决，这一税率预计将回落至9%左右。在国家层面，短期内最大的赢家将是那些对美贸易依赖度高、且受IEEPA关税影响最重的经济体。花旗的分析（综合考虑了基准关税率、应税商品比例、对美出口占比及出口占GDP比重）显示：最大赢家：越南和墨西哥。同样受益：印度，作为唯一冇有与美国达成协议的主要贸易伙伴，其关税有望从50%（尽管目前因俄油制裁应降至25%）大幅降低。获益最少：欧盟和英国。值得注意的是，这一“赢家”局面可能是短暂的，因为政府后续可能会通过其他方式卷土重来。交易路线图：市场已预演“IEEPA被推翻”行情对于投资者而言，最关键的是如何交易这一预期。花旗报告通过分析听证会当天（市场预期急剧转变时）的盘中资产表现。在当天上午9:30至11:30，即IEEPA胜率直线下降的时段内，市场表现如下：外汇市场：墨西哥比索和巴西雷亚尔双双上涨，而欧元表现平平。这与前述“赢家”分析高度一致。股票市场：市场情绪偏向利好，对关税更为敏感的罗素2000小盘股指数涨幅超过标普500指数。通胀预期：1年期通胀互换收益率下跌超过5个基点，反映出投资者迅速消化了关税商品通胀压力减弱的预期。本文转载自“华尔街见闻”APP，作者：叶桢；智通财经编辑：宋芝萦。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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