中金：25Q3险企NBV延续高增速向后看负债端对股价影响或增强

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智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，9M25中资寿险可比口径下NBV同比增速，人保寿+76.6%>平安+46.2%>国寿+41.8%>太保+31.2%，综合考虑低利率环境下“存款搬家”趋势以及“报行合一”等措施下行业步入高质量发展，对未来头部公司负债端趋势维持乐观展望。财险方面，9M25人保财/平安财/太保财CoR分别同比-2.1/-0.8/-1.1ppt至96.1%/97.0%/97.6%，当前...

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Looking backward, the impact of the liability side on stock prices may increase","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601318":1,"601601":1,"01339":0.9,"02628":0.9,"00966":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，9M25中资寿险可比口径下NBV同比增速，人保寿+76.6%>平安+46.2%>国寿+41.8%>太保+31.2%，综合考虑低利率环境下“存款搬家”趋势以及“报行合一”等措施下行业步入高质量发展，对未来头部公司负债端趋势维持乐观展望。财险方面，9M25人保财/平安财/太保财CoR分别同比-2.1/-0.8/-1.1ppt至96.1%/97.0%/97.6%，当前非车险综合治理等监管措施开启，头部财险公司未来盈利趋势仍有改善空间。中金主要观点如下：新业务价值(NBV)延续高增速，对负债端展望乐观9M25中资寿险可比口径下NBV同比增速，人保寿+76.6%>平安+46.2%>国寿+41.8%>太保+31.2%；首年保费口径下平安/太保新业务价值率分别同比+7.6ppt/+1.7ppt至25.2%/18.0%。综合考虑低利率环境下“存款搬家”趋势以及“报行合一”等措施下行业步入高质量发展，对未来头部公司负债端趋势维持乐观展望。财险综合成本率(CoR)持续优化，关注非车险综合治理带来的积极变化9M25人保财/平安财/太保财CoR分别同比-2.1/-0.8/-1.1ppt至96.1%/97.0%/97.6%。过去几年在一系列监管政策推动下车险业务实现提质增效，当前非车险综合治理等监管措施开启，头部财险公司未来盈利趋势仍有改善空间。净利润高增、净资产提升股市走强推动各家投资收益继续上行，9M25国寿/新华年化总投资收益率同比+1.0/+1.8ppt至6.4%/8.6%，太保/人保非年化总投资收益率同比+0.5/+0.8ppt至5.2%/5.4%，平安非年化综合投资收益率同比+1.0ppt至5.4%，受此影响各家净利润同比高增，净资产环比提升。负债端对股价影响或增强中金认为，投资收益率走高驱动的行情或近尾声，高基数下资产端弹性走弱概率较高，负债端对保险股股价影响或将增强，建议关注负债产品结构优化、成本下降和增长趋势突出的优质寿险，行业排序维持中国平安(601318.SH)/中国太平(00966)/中国太保(601601.SH)/中国国寿(02628)/中国人保(01339)。风险因素新单保费增长不及预期；利率和资本市场大幅波动；政策不确定性；自然灾害。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2582355573","isCrawlerRequest":true}

中金：25Q3险企NBV延续高增速 向后看负债端对股价影响或增强

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中金：25Q3险企NBV延续高增速向后看负债端对股价影响或增强