分析师高呼上涨远未结束 AI与电力需求成为铜价新引擎

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智通财经APP获悉，铜价已从7月创下的历史高位回落，但分析人士警告，这轮上涨远未结束。随着人工智能(AI)数据中心、电力基础设施及制造业需求持续飙升，全球铜供应正面临结构性短缺，铜价或再度走高。RJO Futures高级市场策略师John Caruso直言：“铜是一颗即将引爆的价格定时炸弹。”他指出，未来十年铜需求每年可能增加100万吨，而供应增长远赶不上步伐，“长期性供给缺口的概率非常高”。尽管...

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Futures高级市场策略师John Caruso直言：“铜是一颗即将引爆的价格定时炸弹。”他指出，未来十年铜需求每年可能增加100万吨，而供应增长远赶不上步伐，“长期性供给缺口的概率非常高”。尽管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1368026.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1116320901.HKD","symbol_name":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) 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Caruso直言：“铜是一颗即将引爆的价格定时炸弹。”他指出，未来十年铜需求每年可能增加100万吨，而供应增长远赶不上步伐，“长期性供给缺口的概率非常高”。尽管特朗普政府近期削减数十亿美元清洁能源项目资金、放缓能源转型，全球对绿色能源的追求仍未终止。尤其是AI数据中心爆炸式增长所带来的庞大电力需求，正在成为推动铜消费的新动能。Mount Lucas Management联席首席投资官David Aspell表示：“从经济活动层面看，推动铜需求的力量仍然存在，尤其是AI基础设施与数据中心建设。需求依然强劲，并预计将长期维持高位。”美国能源部数据显示，根据加州劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室2024年报告，数据中心在2023年已消耗全美约4.4%的电力，预计到2028年这一比例将上升至6.7%至12%。Caruso指出，“AI数据中心的用电需求将在本十年内可能翻倍，而AI基础设施资本支出仍在快速扩张，没有任何放缓迹象。”国际能源署(IEA)预计，到2035年全球铜供应将出现约30%的缺口，主要原因是矿业开发困难与对电气化设备的需求猛增。根据FactSet数据，美国铜期货价格今年最高上涨达44.5%，7月24日盘中触及每磅5.959美元的历史高点；伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价在10月29日也创下每吨11,200美元纪录。年初市场一度预期特朗普政府可能对精炼铜征收进口关税，推动纽约商品交易所(CME)铜价高于伦敦市场(LME)。Aspell解释称：“当关税传闻初现时，CME铜价率先反映潜在关税风险，进口商为了抢在征税前进货，愿意支付溢价。”然而，当政府最终仅对“加工铜”征税、未涉及“精炼铜”时，CME铜价随即回落，目前较历史高点下跌约15%。BCA Research商品及能源首席策略师Roukaya 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