国泰君安期货：ADP数据超预期，金银维持高位整理

市场资讯2025-11-06

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端　　陈骏昊　　国泰君安期货市场分析师 Z0021546 　　昨晚美国10月ADP就业人数公布，增加4.2万人，是今年7月以来的最大增幅，高于预期值增加2.8万人，并且将9月数据向上修正为减少2.9万人。数据公布后，市场态度偏谨慎，金银价格在短暂回落后快速修复，维持高位整理格局。那么金银短期走势怎么看？近期需要关注哪些方面？...

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Z0021546\n　　昨晚美国10月ADP就业人数公布，增加4.2万人，是今年7月以来的最大增幅，高于预期值增加2.8万人，并且将9月数据向上修正为减少2.9万人。数据公布后，市场态度偏谨慎，金银价格在短暂回落后快速修复，维持高位整理格局。那么金银短期走势怎么看？近期需要关注哪些方面？今天我们就来聊一聊。\n　　近期，随着前期多头离场、市场风险偏好抬升以及美联储12月降息预期转弱，贵金属价格开启高位调整。由于此前宏观事件大多落地，11月处于宏观真空期，上涨驱动不明显，金价短期没有较为清晰的走势方向；白银方面，随着此前海外价差矛盾环节，白银价格有所回落，但是伦敦市场库存中长期偏低的矛盾仍在，可关注白银震荡反弹的可能性。\n　　短期内贵金属需关注两个方面，一是美联储降息节奏，由于10月议息会议上鲍威尔表态偏“鹰”，市场对12月降息预期有所回落。根据CME“美联储观察”，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为62.5%，维持利率不变的概率为37.5%；到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为54.8%，维持利率不变的概率为25.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为19.4%。美联储内部对于是否继续降息也存在较大分歧；二是全球贸易情况，如再次发生扰动，黄金的避险需求或将重新回升。\n　　总的来说，短期内金银高位整理的格局或将维持，各位投资者需谨慎操作，但支撑贵金属价格的长期逻辑并未改变，如全球央行持续购金、对抗长期通胀以及去美元化等。（完稿时间：2025.11.6  13：50）\n　　本内容仅用于学习交流，不构成投资建议。接收本文不代表国泰君安期货与读者建立任何业务关系。本公司不对信息的准确性、完整性和可靠性提供保证，投资者须自行承担风险。本文观点仅为作者个人分析，不代表公司立场。未经书面授权，禁止任何形式的复制、修改或引用。如需转载，请注明出处为国泰君安期货，确保内容完整性，且不得对本点评进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。\n\n新浪合作平台国泰君安期货开户 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