Polymarket等预测市场来势汹汹投资者开始抛售线上博彩巨头DraftKings(DKNG.US)与Flutter(FLUT.US)

智通财经11-05

智通财经APP获悉，在华尔街金融巨头美国银行意外下调线上体育博彩运营商股票评级之后，DraftKings Inc.(DKNG.US)以及Flutter Entertainment Plc(FLUT.US)这两大美国线上博彩巨头股价双双大幅下跌。美国银行将下调评级的核心原因归结为博彩市场面临的多重风险，其中包括 Polymarket这类预测市场在全球范围日益盛行，DraftKings 与 ...

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Investors begin to sell online gaming giants DraftKings (DKNG.US) and Flutter (FLUT.US)","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00027":1.5,"FLUT":1.5,"DKNG":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，在华尔街金融巨头美国银行意外下调线上体育博彩运营商股票评级之后，DraftKings Inc.(DKNG.US)以及Flutter Entertainment Plc(FLUT.US)这两大美国线上博彩巨头股价双双大幅下跌。美国银行将下调评级的核心原因归结为博彩市场面临的多重风险，其中包括 Polymarket这类预测市场在全球范围日益盛行，DraftKings 与 Flutter可能在新一轮的“赌局”发展趋势中失色。据了解，由Shaun Kelley领导的美银分析师团队将 DraftKings 和 Flutter的股票评级从“买入”下调至“中性”，表达了对所谓“结构性持有收益”(structural hold，即应适用于特定投注组合的隐含赢利率)的担忧情绪，以及来自税收这一长期逆风的重大压力。至于付费型预测市场带来的威胁，美银表示，随着商业模式持续演变，阻力可能会随之出现，这种逆风可能将成为最大制约因素。“围绕预测市场的近期事件路径是非常具有挑战性的，竞争性的营销以及全面价格战的可能性正在上升，而线上体育博彩(OSB)运营商们的决策则受到监管和法律动作的严格限制，”美银资深分析师Kelley表示。预测市场在赌客群体中可谓越来越受欢迎，诸如Kalshi Inc.以及Polymarket等需要真金白银进行付费押注的预测平台让人们可以就体育比赛、纽约市市长选举以及诺贝尔和平奖等各类重大事件的结果进行付费押注。9月下旬，美国国内最受散户欢迎的券商平台Robinhood Markets，以及知名预测平台Kalshi都曾经报告称预测市场押注规模正在激增。就连美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的社交媒体公司也开始参与其中。资本市场近年来对这条新的付费型预测赛道高度敏感，最终让传统博彩行业估值与商业模式面临长期压力。预测市场的崛起导致 DraftKings以及Flutter的股价表现不及标普500指数DraftKings股价周二收跌6.4%，盘中一度触及两年多以来的最低水平。与此同时，Flutter股价则下跌 3.9%。Kalshi Inc.以及Polymarket等预测市场带来的重大威胁已促使投资者们大举抛售这些博彩运营商股票，两家公司股价都经历了连续数月的下跌趋势。美银分析师Kelley表示：“不幸但并不意外的是，OSB运营商股票价值现在已经开始对大型预测市场相关公告作出负面反应。”他补充表示，他认为前方存在实质性更高的风险，包括Polymarket在美国的一些重磅功能上线、Kalshi 的新一轮大规模融资，以及来自传统金融和加密货币领域新进入者们共同加入这场线上博彩竞争。Kelley认为，尽管DraftKings以及Flutter 旗下的FanDuel目前尚未看到任何“蚕食”现象，但他预计，预测市场的下一阶段将会在新闻动态和商业模式层面带来逆风。“在没有明确法律解决方案的情况下，预测市场的事件路径和单位经济学效应，可能在未来6至9个月，乃至几年时间里，成为我们这一领域的重大悬念，”Kelley等美银分析师在周二发布的一份报告中写道。“我们认为，在公告和竞争方面将会有更多负面消息，而在美国监管与法律发展依然多变的情况下，也可能出现一些喜忧参半的消息。”DraftKings和FanDuel 一直在努力涉足预测市场——前者收购了获得美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)牌照的交易所Railbird Technologies Inc.，后者则与芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group Inc.)建立了合作关系，但是Kelley 警告称，当前的法律环境使得测算具体的风险回报变得困难。Kelley表示：“在联邦和州一级案件仍在法院推进之际，包括内华达州、伊利诺伊州、俄亥俄州、密歇根州和亚利桑那州在内的州监管机构似乎正在把传统博彩运营商‘圈在盒子里’，从而把优势拱手让给颠覆者以及新进入者。我们认为这也是对近期相关公告的回应。”DraftKings将于周四美股收盘后公布第三季度业绩。Flutter则计划于11月12日发布第三季度财报。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2581573797","isCrawlerRequest":true}

Polymarket等预测市场来势汹汹 投资者开始抛售线上博彩巨头DraftKings(DKNG.US)与Flutter(FLUT.US)

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Polymarket等预测市场来势汹汹投资者开始抛售线上博彩巨头DraftKings(DKNG.US)与Flutter(FLUT.US)