中泰证券：重视谷歌AI算力产业链和OCS技术创新带来的投资机会

智通财经2025-11-07

智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，谷歌(GOOGL.US)全面布局芯片(TPU)-网络(OCS)-模型(Gemini)-应用(云计算/搜索/广告等)，自研TPU芯片实现跨越式发展， Gemini模型能力全球领先。公司也在探索OCS应用，考虑到OCS的性能优势，随着技术方案的成熟，未来在数据中心应用前景广阔。该行建议，重视谷歌AI算力产业链和OCS技术创新带来的投资机会。中泰证券主要观点如下：...

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Gemini月活跃用户已超6.5亿，每月处理Token总量一年内增长超过20倍。谷歌云营收及占比持续提高， AI拉动下需求强劲在手订单充足。为什么AI数据中心要使用OCS? 光交换技术最早出现于电信市场，应用于以WSS为代表的传统电信网络中。数通领域特殊的光开关为OCS(光电路交换机)，利用光信号直接传输数据，避免了信号的转换过程，减少了延迟和能量消耗，尤其是在跨区域扩展和大规模AI算力需求下表现出极大优势。 传统光电架构动态性能、功耗、成本面临挑战， OCS是应对动态算力需求的关键解决方案——服务器解耦的核心动态互连技术。当ScaleOut规模呈指数级扩张，传统 Clos架构在功耗散热，布线及相应资本开支方面都会面对明显挑战;而传统数据中心架构“CPU– 内存– GPU– 存储”紧耦合加重上述症结。根据Drut，服务器解耦的技术核心是通过OCS动态光子fabric，实现PCIe信号的长距离、低延迟传输，数据无需经过多跳交换机，效率显著提升。谷歌TPU出货预期上修， OCS光交换机前景广阔。 早期谷歌数据中心使用Clos拓扑架构，在自研TPU集群Jupiter/Apollo架构中引入OCS替代脊交换机，根据SemiAnalysis，谷歌的OCS定制化网络使其整个网络的吞吐量提升了30%，功耗降低了40%，数据流完成时间缩短了10%，网络宕机时间减少50倍，且资本开支减少30%。 目前谷歌TPU V7 Ironwood即将全面上市，开始配置1.6T光模块， OCS主要采用MEMS和液晶方案，其核心部件MEMS阵列、光纤阵列、发射/接收模组及其光学器件、钒酸钇晶体、光模块、环形器、光源等供应商均有望受益。 OCS主要包括MEMS、液晶、压电、硅光波导四种方案，其中MEMS和液晶方案应用进展较快，其他方案也在技术优化。 英伟达等也在探索OCS应用，考虑到OCS的性能优势，随着技术方案的成熟，未来在数据中心应用前景广阔。风险提示： AI进展不及预期、全球数据中心资本开支不及预期、下游需求不及预期、 OCS 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