中金：北美CSP资本开支继续上调 AI需求持续超出供给

智通财经11-06

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，上周，北美头部云计算厂商陆续发布3Q25业绩，3Q25北美Top4云厂商(亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Meta)合计资本开支(含融资租赁)为1133.18亿美元，同比增75%、环比增长18%。四家北美云厂商单季度资本开支表现亮眼，并上调全年指引，对2026年AI投资口径保持乐观，印证海外AI算力需求景气无虞，2026年指引未来将大概率继续上修。另外，AI需求持续超过供给...

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supply","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"300308":1,"300502":1,"301165":1,"688313":1,"688498":1,"002281":1,"FB":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AI":0.9,"USAW.SI":0.6,"000988":1,"USJW.SI":0.6,"GOOGL":0.9},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，上周，北美头部云计算厂商陆续发布3Q25业绩，3Q25北美Top4云厂商(亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Meta)合计资本开支(含融资租赁)为1133.18亿美元，同比增75%、环比增长18%。四家北美云厂商单季度资本开支表现亮眼，并上调全年指引，对2026年AI投资口径保持乐观，印证海外AI算力需求景气无虞，2026年指引未来将大概率继续上修。另外，AI需求持续超过供给，正加速赋能核心业务以实现商业闭环，其中搜索业务收入超市场预期。中金主要观点如下：海外CSP继续上修资本开支指引根据公开业绩会，谷歌将2025年资本开支从800亿美元上修到910-930亿美元；Meta上修2025年资本开支至700-720亿美元(前值为660-720亿美元)；微软表示2026财年资本开支增长率将高于2025财年；亚马逊上修2025年资本开支至1250亿美元，并预期2026年继续增长。四家北美云厂商单季度资本开支表现亮眼，并上调全年指引，对2026年AI投资口径保持乐观，印证海外AI算力需求景气无虞。参考媒体一致预期与业绩会指引，中金预期2025/2026年北美Top4云厂商总资本开支(含融资租赁)有望分别达到3845/4998亿美元，同比增长54.8%/30.0%，较8月(上季度业绩会后)预期上修3.8%/14.9%，2026年指引未来将大概率继续上修。AI需求持续超过供给，正加速赋能核心业务以实现商业闭环各家云厂商业绩会传递出AI供不应求的信号，微软表示Azrue云服务产能受限，需求超出当前供给能力；Meta表示广告推荐系统面临算力不足的问题；谷歌云未履约合同环比增长46%至1550亿美元；亚马逊表示自研芯片Trainium2已完全被预订。云端，AI已成为驱动微软Azure(3Q25 YoY+40%)、谷歌云(YoY+34%)及亚马逊AWS(YoY+20%以上)收入加速成长的核心引擎。应用端同样看到了AI对核心业务的赋能效果，Meta由AI驱动的广告工具年化收入已超600亿美元，AI Overview推动谷歌搜索业务的查询量在Q3翻倍增长，搜索业务收入超市场预期。投资建议相关标的包括中际旭创(300308.SZ)、源杰科技(688498.SH)、博通(AVGO.US)、锐捷网络(301165.SZ)、光迅科技(002281.SZ)、Arista(ANET.US)、Clestica、新易盛(300502.SZ)、仕佳光子(688313.SH)、Lumentum(LITE.US)、华工科技(000988.SZ)等。风险因素云资本开支不及预期，AI应用落地不及预期，全球经济下行。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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