历史重演还是纯属巧合？先是Burry做空，后是德银对冲，“大空头2.0”真实再现了！

华尔街见闻11-06

一场与2008年金融危机前夕惊人相似的戏码，似乎正在围绕人工智能投资狂潮上演。 2008年金融危机中，电影《大空头》原型人物Michael Burry通过做空房地产泡沫一举成名，德意志银行交易员悄然向客户推销信用违约互换（CDS），允许投资者对冲房地产市场风险。如今，Michael Burry公开看空并大举押注，80%重仓做空英伟达和Palantir，紧接着德意志银行开始考虑做空AI股票对冲在...

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First Burry shorted, then Deutsche Bank hedged, and \"Big Short 2.0\" truly reappeared!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AI":0.9,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDA":0.61,"PLTR":0.61,"SRT":1,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"一场与2008年金融危机前夕惊人相似的戏码，似乎正在围绕人工智能投资狂潮上演。\n2008年金融危机中，电影《大空头》原型人物Michael Burry通过做空房地产泡沫一举成名，德意志银行交易员悄然向客户推销信用违约互换（CDS），允许投资者对冲房地产市场风险。\n如今，Michael Burry公开看空并大举押注，80%重仓做空英伟达和Palantir，紧接着德意志银行开始考虑做空AI股票对冲在数据中心领域的巨额贷款风险，还开始探索类似的对冲工具，只是标的从房地产抵押贷款变成了AI数据中心贷款。\n这些“巧合”重演直接，全球监管机构对AI资产泡沫发出警告，新加坡金融管理局明确指出，科技和AI板块呈现\"相对紧张的估值\"，警告市场乐观情绪逆转可能引发\"急剧回调\"，韩国交易所也曾对芯片制造商SK海力士发出罕见的\"投资谨慎提示\"。高盛、大摩CEO也齐发预警，美股估值太高了，可能出现至少10%回调！\n\n\"大空头\"再发警示，80%仓位押注AI崩盘\n因精准预测并做空美国次贷危机而一战成名的投资者Michael Burry，正将其对AI泡沫的警告付诸于激进的空头行动。最新监管文件显示，他管理的Scion Asset Management约80%的持仓集中于做空Palantir和英伟达，名义价值超过10亿美元。\n\n文件披露，Burry针对Palantir的看跌期权名义价值高达9.12亿美元，相当于500万股；针对英伟达的看跌期权名义价值达1.86亿美元。不过，文件未披露期权的实际支付权利金、行权价及到期日等关键细节。\n在公开持仓前，Burry曾通过社交媒体发布神秘帖文，引用经典电影称：\"有时我们看到泡沫。有时可以采取行动。有时唯一的制胜策略就是不参与游戏。\"他暗示，AI投资回报过低，类似互联网泡沫时期光纤资本支出过度，当前AI热潮中许多领先公司最终将崩溃。\nBurry的策略与他在次贷危机前的成名之举如出一辙。彼时他借助信用违约互换（CDS）工具，在市场普遍乐观时做空了美国房地产市场。如今，他再次将火力对准被视为市场狂热焦点的AI板块。\n然而，值得注意的是，由于两家公司的股价在文件基准日后持续上涨，Burry的空头头寸已面临显著的账面亏损。市场正密切关注，这位传奇投资者能否复制当年的成功。\n\n德银的“两手准备”：一面放贷，一面寻求对冲\n\n在AI需求驱动下，数据中心融资已成为德意志银行投资银行业务的核心押注。据该行一位高管透露，银行已\"大举押注\"于这一领域。德银主要向服务于Alphabet、微软和亚马逊等\"超大规模\"科技巨头的企业提供贷款，这些贷款通常由长期服务合同作为担保，承诺稳定回报。\n近几个月，德意志银行为瑞典集团EcoDataCenter和加拿大公司5C等提供了债务融资，帮助它们筹集了超过10亿美元用于扩张。虽然该行未披露对该行业的具体贷款总额，但据估计已达数十亿美元。\n然而，据英国《金融时报》最新报道，正是在这一背景下，对冲风险的讨论已在德银内部浮出水面。银行正在评估的选项包括两个层面：\n\n一是直接做空一篮子AI相关股票，以在市场下行时获利；二是通过一种名为“合成风险转移”（SRT）的衍生品交易，将部分贷款的违约风险打包出售给外部投资者。\n\n这一举动之所以引发市场高度关注，不仅在于其审慎姿态，更在于其与历史的相似性。在2008年金融危机中，正是德意志银行的交易员Greg Lippmann推动建立了庞大的CDS市场，允许投资者做空房地产。\n一些市场观察人士指出，德银如今考虑的SRT结构，在将风险资产池打包分层的逻辑上，与当年的债务抵押债券（CDO）“看起来和闻起来都很像”，这不禁让人联想到背后可能存在的风险。\n然而对冲AI风险并非易事。在持续繁荣的市场中做空一篮子AI股票成本高昂。合成风险转移交易也面临挑战，需要足够多元化的贷款池才能获得评级，且投资者可能要求更高回报才愿意承担这些风险。\n值得注意的是，德银分析师今年9月曾发布报告称，对AI泡沫的担忧被过度夸大，断言\"关于泡沫的泡沫已经破裂\"。这种内部观点的矛盾凸显了大型金融机构在当前市场环境下的复杂处境。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.11","shortVersion":"4.35.11","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2581033856","isCrawlerRequest":true}