美国数据中心增量电力需求，“电网外方案”解决“1/4到1/3”，其中燃料电池满足“25-50%”

华尔街见闻11-03

AI的指数级发展正将数据中心变成吞噬电力的“巨兽”，而老化的电网基础设施已不堪重负。传统电网的滞后也为“电网外”（Behind-the-Meter, BTM）供电方案打开了巨大的市场空间。据追风交易台消息，高盛最新研报预测，到2030年，“电网外”解决方案可以满足数据中心增量电力需求的四分之一到三分之一，对应20-25吉瓦（GW）的装机容量。其中，燃料电池技术正凭借其独特优势，将占据“电网外”...

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cells meet \"25-50%\"","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81ae51b24b02882edd6feb6500d69b66","symbols_score_info":{"AEP":2,"BTM":1},"content_text":"AI的指数级发展正将数据中心变成吞噬电力的“巨兽”，而老化的电网基础设施已不堪重负。传统电网的滞后也为“电网外”（Behind-the-Meter, BTM）供电方案打开了巨大的市场空间。据追风交易台消息，高盛最新研报预测，到2030年，“电网外”解决方案可以满足数据中心增量电力需求的四分之一到三分之一，对应20-25吉瓦（GW）的装机容量。其中，燃料电池技术正凭借其独特优势，将占据“电网外”解决方案市场25%至50%的份额，相当于8-20吉瓦（GW）的装机容量。AI的“电老虎”与电网的“中年危机”根据高盛的报告，AI和非AI应用共同推动的全球数据中心电力需求正在重塑电力市场。高盛美国公用事业团队预测，到2030年，仅美国数据中心就需要新增约82吉瓦（GW）的电力容量来满足需求。然而，现实是残酷的。电网基础设施的建设速度远远跟不上需求的增长。报告引用的数据显示，美国新的高压输电线路建设速度已从2010-2014年间的平均每年1700英里，大幅下降到2020-2023年间的每年仅350英里。更严峻的是，根据劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的数据，一个项目从提出并网申请到最终商业运营，所需时间中位数已接近5年。这种“远水解不了近渴”的局面，迫使数据中心运营商不得不将目光从电网身上移开，转向能够快速部署的现场发电方案。“电网外”供电：一个25GW的新兴市场面对电网的无能为力，“电网外”（BTM）解决方案应运而生。BTM指在用户侧直接发电并消耗，不经过公共电网。报告明确指出，BTM方案为数据中心提供了独立于电网可靠性问题的、不间断运营的重要替代方案。报告作出了一个关键的量化预测：在2024至2030年间，数据中心的增量电力需求总计约为730太瓦时（TWh）。高盛估计，其中四分之一到三分之一将由BTM方案满足，这意味着未来五年将部署高达20-25吉瓦（GW）的BTM发电设施。“到2030年，‘电网外’解决方案可以满足数据中心约四分之一到三分之一的增量电力需求，即20-25吉瓦（GW）。”在这个新兴市场中，燃气轮机和燃料电池被认为是两种最有前途的技术，因为它们都能提供独立于电网的、稳定可调度的电力。燃料电池的8-20GW黄金赛道而在BTM方案中，燃料电池尤其是固态氧化物燃料电池（SOFC）相比传统的燃气轮机，在交付时间、噪音、排放和灵活性上拥有结构性优势。综合以上优势，高盛对燃料电池在数据中心市场的应用前景极为乐观。报告的核心预测是，到2030年，燃料电池将占据BTM解决方案市场25%至50%的份额，相当于8-20吉瓦（GW）的装机容量。特别是固态氧化物燃料电池因其高效率、燃料灵活性和商业化准备就绪，被认为是最适合数据中心应用的技术路线。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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