警告泡沫后，“大空头”最新持仓曝光：80%仓位做空Palantir和英伟达

华尔街见闻11-04

警告泡沫后，“大空头”仓位曝光：80%仓位做空Palantir和英伟达因电影《大空头》而闻名的投资者Michael Burry正将其对AI泡沫的警告付诸行动。最新监管文件显示，他管理的Scion Asset Management约80%的持仓集中于做空Palantir和英伟达这两家AI热潮的标志性公司，押注规模之大引发市场关注。据华尔街见闻此前文章，Burry近日通过社交媒体X发布神秘帖文，引用...

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Management约80%的持仓集中于做空Palantir和英伟达这两家AI热潮的标志性公司，押注规模之大引发市场关注。据华尔街见闻此前文章，Burry近日通过社交媒体X发布神秘帖文，引用经典电影《战争游戏》和《大空头》称：\"有时我们看到泡沫。有时可以采取行动。有时唯一的制胜策略就是不参与游戏。\"他随后暗示，AI投资回报过低，类似互联网泡沫时期光纤资本支出过度，当前AI热潮中许多领先公司最终将崩溃。提前两周公布的13F文件证实，Burry确实在\"采取行动\"。他针对Palantir的看跌期权名义价值高达9.12亿美元（相当于500万股），针对英伟达的看跌期权名义价值达1.86亿美元。不过，文件未披露期权的实际支付权利金、行权价及到期日。这一押注面临显著账面损失。截至9月30日13F文件基准日后，两只股票均大幅上涨，意味着Burry的空头头寸已遭受实质性亏损，除非他已平仓止损。其激进做空策略能否重现2008年次贷危机中的成功，市场存疑。集中做空AI龙头根据Scion Asset Management的持仓文件，其投资组合呈现出鲜明的分化。一部分是规模较小的传统持仓，包括Bruker、Lululemon、SLM和Molina Healthcare等公司。而另一半则完全由期权构成，其中最引人瞩目的，正是针对Palantir和英伟达的看跌期权。这两笔押注占据了其投资组合的绝大部分，显示出Burry正在集中火力做空他眼中的“AI泡沫”。值得注意的是，文件并未披露这些期权的实际买入成本、行权价或到期日，这些关键细节将决定该交易的最终盈亏。Burry的这一策略，与他在次贷危机前的成名之举如出一辙。当时，他通过信用违约互换（CDS）工具，精准做空了美国房地产市场。如今，他再次瞄准被视为“市场狂热”代名词的资产，试图复制当年的成功。在公开发出泡沫警告后，Burry用实际行动证明其观点，这被一些市场观察人士解读为顶部信号。他正如同当年一样，试图“在泡沫的围栏上挥出全垒打”。押注时机仍是关键尽管Burry的做空行动引发市场关注，但投资者仍需保持谨慎。历史经验表明，即使方向判断正确，时机也至关重要。回顾2008年金融危机前的交易，Burry实际上提前了大约两年布局空头仓位。虽然他最终获得了巨大成功，但在此期间，维持CDS头寸的高昂成本曾一度使其濒临绝境。过早入场可能带来巨大的持有成本和压力。此外，Burry近年来对市场的时机判断也并非总是准确。例如，他在2023年1月曾以一个词“卖出”（Sell）警告市场风险，但随后市场却展开了一轮强劲反弹。本次做空亦面临类似挑战，自文件披露的9月30日至今，Palantir和英伟达的股价走势已使其空头头寸面临浮亏。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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