财报季有望推动美股再创新高

美股研究社10-29

上周，受通胀报告（该报告基本确定本周将再次降息）推动，道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数和标普 500 指数均收于历史新高。昨日，三大指数再度刷新纪录。这些都是重要进展，但支撑市场上涨的核心因素，仍是出色的企业盈利增长。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】长期来看，市场与企业利润的走势高度吻合。市场通常具有前瞻性，会通过估值调整提前反映未来盈利增速的变化。从这一角度看，指数创下历史新高本身就释放出...

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为由，但他们已从惨痛教训中得知，这种视角不仅过于狭隘，也绝非有效的择时工具。估值问题最终可能会产生影响，但绝非现在。目前标普 500 的未来 12 个月预期市盈率为 22.7 倍，远高于过去十年 18.6 倍的均值，且创下 2000 年互联网泡沫以来的最高水平 —— 但有一个关键前提需要注意。1999 年末，标普 500 成分股的利润率峰值略低于 8%，而整个 90 年代的平均利润率约为 6%。如今，该利润率稳定在 12.8%，与上季度持平，且接近 13% 的历史纪录。随着人工智能技术的普及，越来越多企业的利润率将逐步受益于这场技术革命。分析师共识预测显示，明年一季度利润率将升至 13.4%，二季度进一步升至 13.7%。很简单的道理：利润率 13% 的企业，理应比利润率 7%-8% 的企业享有更高市盈率。未来市场或许不会出现显著的估值扩张，但盈利增长将持续推动牛市走高。此外，当前市场也并非如看空者所言 “过度依赖龙头股”—— 等权重标普 500 指数（RSP）2026 年预期市盈率约为 16 倍，较市值加权指数低 20%。因此，对于不局限于被动指数的投资者而言，市场中仍存在大量具备估值优势的标的。值得注意的是，可口可乐（KO）、福特（F）、通用汽车（GM）、3M（MMM）和 Netflix（NFLX）等企业均发布了强劲财报。即便此前因欺诈事件披露巨额亏损的地区性银行（如西部联合银行 WAL、锡安银行 ZION），业绩也超出预期。面向低端消费者的第一资本金融公司（COF），因汽车贷款和信用卡贷款表现好于预期，释放了 7.6 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