发电业务估值超过了英伟达和GE Vernova！大摩：卡特彼勒被严重高估

华尔街见闻10-31

大摩认为，卡特彼勒股价已被“完美定价”：公司仅占总销售额约12%的发电业务，正以一个比英伟达和GE Vernova还要昂贵的估值在交易，“市场要么支付了天价溢价购买发电业务，要么在利润率持续萎缩时将周期性业务重估至荒谬高位。”在卡特彼勒股价因超预期的Q3业绩而飙升至历史新高后，摩根士丹利发出警告：市场给予公司发电业务的估值倍数，已经远远超过了人工智能巨头英伟达和能源领军者GE Vernova。这种...

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Morgan Stanley: Caterpillar Is Seriously Overvalued","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffa9422d206c06b1b79e1448a1a3e3f","symbols_score_info":{"CAT":2},"content_text":"大摩认为，卡特彼勒股价已被“完美定价”：公司仅占总销售额约12%的发电业务，正以一个比英伟达和GE Vernova还要昂贵的估值在交易，“市场要么支付了天价溢价购买发电业务，要么在利润率持续萎缩时将周期性业务重估至荒谬高位。”在卡特彼勒股价因超预期的Q3业绩而飙升至历史新高后，摩根士丹利发出警告：市场给予公司发电业务的估值倍数，已经远远超过了人工智能巨头英伟达和能源领军者GE Vernova。这种狂热情绪已将股价推向“完美定价”的境地，任何风吹草动都可能引发剧烈回调。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利分析师在10月30日的报告中表示，在当前股价下，市场给予卡特彼勒发电业务的EV/EBITDA（企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润）倍数介于58倍至103倍之间。这是一个什么概念？作为对比，能源领域的同行GE Vernova的估值倍数约为28倍，而备受追捧的AI芯片巨头英伟达的估值也仅在25倍左右。这意味着市场认为卡特彼勒的发电业务比全球最顶尖的科技和能源公司的相关业务更有价值。分析师警告，要让卡特彼勒目前585美元的股价合理化，市场必须接受两种极端情况之一：要么是卡特彼勒仅占总销售额约12%的发电业务，正以一个比英伟达和GE Vernova还要昂贵的估值在交易；要么是公司其余传统的周期性业务（如建筑和资源开采）的估值被推高到了远超历史正常区间的“荒谬水平”。即便采用最乐观假设——对卡特彼勒发电业务给予45倍市盈率（GE Vernova水平），其余周期性业务（工程机械、资源工业等）的隐含估值仍高达28倍市盈率。而这些业务的调整后营业利润率正在逐季收缩，三季度环比下降近100个基点：市场要么支付了天价溢价购买发电业务，要么在利润率持续萎缩时将周期性业务重估至荒谬高位。摩根士丹利估算，即便假设备用发电机年复合增长率超30%、主发电解决方案超65%，并计入1.5-3倍服务乘数效应，也难以达到多头预期的2027年200亿美元发电业务销售额。报告建议：在数据中心主题上，康明斯的估值更为合理且风险更低。报告维持卡特彼勒2026年EPS预期为19.24美元，目标价380美元基于20倍市盈率——这已高于公司13-22.5倍历史中枢，较目前股价有35%的下跌空间。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.9","shortVersion":"4.35.9","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2579221431","isCrawlerRequest":true}