花旗驳斥信贷“蟑螂论”：地区银行动荡或提供买入机会！

市场资讯2025-10-21

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　来源：金十数据　　近期美国地区性银行信贷问题引发广泛关注，部分人不仅将其与2023年硅谷银行恐慌相提并论，甚至类比2008年全球金融危机。　　但花旗集团金融行业分析师基思·霍洛维茨（Keith Horowitz）与信贷策略主管迈克尔·安德森（Michael Anderson）明确表示，这类对比完全偏离事实，毫无根据。...

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Alliance）的公告：两家银行涉及同一家名为Cantor的商业地产公司逾期贷款问题。齐昂银行提及“明显的虚假陈述”，西部联合银行则指控对方存在欺诈行为。此外，摩根大通也报告称，向次级汽车贷款机构Tricolor发放的贷款产生了1.7亿美元损失。\n　　霍洛维茨表示，在他覆盖的银行中，95%完全没有信贷问题，逾期率要么符合预期，要么好于预期，且消费者支出趋势保持积极。\n　　近期市场对“信贷危机蔓延”的担忧主要集中在对非存款类金融机构（NDFIs）的贷款上。霍洛维茨估算，这类贷款约占地区性银行业贷款总额的20%，且大多通过资产证券化发放，违约风险较低。\n　　当被问及近期第一品牌集团（First Brands）与三色集团（Tricolor）违约涉及的汽车行业时，霍洛维茨再次安抚投资者：该行业“毫无问题，状况极佳”。他解释道，汽车贷款通常期限较短，可能引发问题的贷款多发放于2022年加息前，如今大多已到期，仅占贷款总额的约10%。各银行已为2026年和2027年做好充分准备。\n　　安德森同样认为，目前没有真正值得焦虑的理由。银行信贷利差较上季度收窄约15个基点，无任何压力迹象；他确信，在放松监管、美联储降息、强劲并购活动及稳健股市的推动下，银行放贷仍处于扩张周期。他将地区性银行上月遭遇的具体问题视为“个别案例”。\n　　花旗首席美国经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Hollenhorst）也加入了上述直播中，确认美联储现阶段不会采取行动——因为当前损失规模过小，不足以产生影响，且未出现金融环境收紧的迹象，也无真实的风险规避情绪或银行间拆借回避的信号。\n　　霍洛维茨指出，目前银行第三季度财报表现良好，信贷指标向好。支付业务与财富管理业务贡献手续费收入，资本水平也保持稳健。\n　　他预计，未来12个月地区性银行实际表现将优于大型银行——许多地区性银行的贷款账簿上存在未实现损失，但这些损失很可能永远不会实际发生，最终将转化为盈利动力，推动未来几年每股收益实现两位数增长。他看好该板块，最看好的标的包括联合汽车金融公司（Ally Financial Inc．）、美国合众银行（US Bancorp）与公民银行（Citizens Bank）。\n　　有趣的是，齐昂银行本周发布的第三季度业绩好于预期。截至周二，其股价报51.98美元，而危机爆发前股价为55美元。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：何俊熹","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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