碳中和系列报告七：航运减碳大势所趋重视生柴、RNG及绿色甲醇

上海申银万国证...10-23

IMO及欧盟等航运减碳政策频发，航运减碳进入落地期。全球船运燃料用量约3亿吨，对应碳排放量超10亿吨（欧盟占比约18%），占全球的3%，欧盟及IMO等航运减碳政策不断出台。1）欧盟：航运业自2024年纳入欧盟碳市场，未履约缺口将被罚款100EURO/tCO2e；FuelEU要求2025年开始降碳2%，2050年降碳80%，违者罚款642EURO/tCO e；2）IMO：2023年提出2050净零...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025102319073894d99882&s=b><strong>上海申银万国证...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IMO及欧盟等航运减碳政策频发，航运减碳进入落地期。全球船运燃料用量约3亿吨，对应碳排放量超10亿吨（欧盟占比约18%），占全球的3%，欧盟及IMO等航运减碳政策不断出台。1）欧盟：航运业自2024年纳入欧盟碳市场，未履约缺口将被罚款100EURO/tCO2e；FuelEU要求2025年开始降碳2%，2050年降碳80%，违者罚款642EURO/tCO e；2）IMO：2023年提出2050净零...</p>\n\n<a 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e）实质性推动航运减碳。3）中国：开展绿色燃料试点，同时明确绿色氢氨醇消费可计入绿电消纳任务。2030年ZNZ使用目标5-10%，合规成本提升助力ZNZ需求释放，行业供不应求。从供需来看，据DNV截止2025年8月统计，生柴、LNG、绿醇需求分别约2亿/4000万/600万吨，船燃供给仅70/10/10万吨，低碳燃料供给严重不足。从经济性来看，欧盟合规成本高于IMO，且逐年提升，其2025/2030/2040/2050燃料+合规成本分别为741/953/1649/3014美元/吨（IMO框架下VLSFO+合规成本在2028/2030/2040年分别为525/583/1362美元/吨），推动低碳燃料需求释放。需注意的是，碳价锁定ZNZ上限，绿醇当前价格6200美元/t依赖碳价380美元/吨，未来需重视降本，作为对比，生柴相比绿醇更有经济性（分别为0.21/0.31元/MJ）。生物柴油：存量船舶核心减碳措施，港口加注量高增。需求：存量船舶主要为单一传统燃料，改造成本极高，未来降碳极度依赖生物柴油，新加坡港口生物柴油加注量高增。自2022年以来，新加坡港口生物柴油加注量持续大幅提升，反应需求正逐步落地。从供给来看，全球生物柴油产量约5200万吨，主要用于柴油车减碳，伴随电动车高速发展，生物柴油有望更多转向船运等难以电气化领域。建议关注卓越新能及山高环能。生物天然气：LNG船需求广阔，绿色溢价助推爆发。RNG可显著降碳、改善环境，并提高能源安全，中国及欧盟目标2030年产量超200/350亿方。历史RNG发展较慢，主因成本较高，伴随IMO净零框架+质量平衡模式落地，有望推动RNG绿色溢价兑现（美国Archaea的RNG绿色溢价高达725%），行业有望爆发。建议关注维尔利、中国天楹。绿醇：甲醇船快速增长，中期有望供需两旺。当前406艘甲醇船（含订单）预计对应甲醇需求超800万吨，但全球绿色甲醇2025年底预计投运总产能仅124万吨，其中中国73万吨，短期供不求应。全球中期规划虽超4000万吨，但考虑实际落地面临的诸多挑战（认证、资源及技术、成本等），因此能快速落地且具备成本及规模优势的企业有望率先受益，建议关注：复洁环保、中国天楹、金风科技、吉电股份、佛燃能源、香港中华煤气、中集安瑞科、中远海运国际等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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碳中和系列报告七：航运减碳大势所趋 重视生柴、RNG及绿色甲醇

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碳中和系列报告七：航运减碳大势所趋重视生柴、RNG及绿色甲醇