黄金“疯牛”行情接近尾声？Truist Advisory：金价大幅下跌预示回调仍将持续

智通财经2025-10-23

智通财经APP获悉，周二，黄金创下2020年以来最大单日跌幅;此前白银在年内斩获显著涨幅后，也出现大幅抛售。Truist Advisory Services策略师表示，黄金近期下跌预示着回调，且这一趋势应会持续。Truist Advisory首席投资官兼首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)指出：“此次抛售并非由单一因素引发;相反，黄金近期的上涨趋势已进入不可持续的节奏，容易出现大幅...

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Truist Advisory: The sharp drop in gold prices indicates that the correction will continue","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f463161d87a39df3c06657b3ae1991b","symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"SGCmain":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"1OZmain":1.5,"IAU":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"GCmain":1.5,"SGUmain":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"QOmain":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，周二，黄金创下2020年以来最大单日跌幅;此前白银在年内斩获显著涨幅后，也出现大幅抛售。Truist Advisory Services策略师表示，黄金近期下跌预示着回调，且这一趋势应会持续。Truist Advisory首席投资官兼首席市场策略师基思·勒纳(Keith Lerner)指出：“此次抛售并非由单一因素引发;相反，黄金近期的上涨趋势已进入不可持续的节奏，容易出现大幅逆转。”年内黄金涨幅已超65%，且过去一个月涨势进一步加速，价格较200日移动平均线高出30%以上，这是2006年以来该资产偏离趋势的最大幅度。勒纳表示：“这就像橡皮筋被拉得过长，最终的回弹力度可能会很大。”他强调，当市场走势进入不可持续状态时，动能的逆转速度会非常快。Truist的分析显示，从1971年布雷顿森林体系结束至今，黄金单日跌幅超5%的情况在历史上极为罕见，仅记录到44次。勒纳指出，这类大幅下跌通常集中在周期性转折点附近，或处于上涨趋势的后期阶段;尽管此类下跌后短期反弹较为常见，但长期走势则呈现出更为复杂的局面。Truist策略师指出，12个月期前景尤其具有挑战性。从历史数据来看，在出现此类大幅单日下跌后，黄金一年内的中位回报率为负值，仅有约40%的案例能实现正回报。勒纳提醒：“这类行情往往意味着市场已显疲态，后续可能进入回调或盘整阶段，不过最终走势的波动范围可能较大。”但他同时认为，黄金关键的长期利好趋势，包括各国央行购金、持续的地缘政治风险，以及对货币贬值的担忧，仍未改变。该策略师预计此次回调将持续，并建议投资者保持耐心，等待市场消化近期涨幅。他表示：“从结构上看，我们仍持乐观态度，因为相较于历史周期，当前的上涨周期似乎仍处于早期阶段。”他强调，尽管短期风险收益比欠佳，但“黄金作为投资组合分散工具和避险资产的作用并未改变;对于尚未配置该资产的投资者而言，我们认为更大幅度的回调可能是潜在的介入机会。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2577373625","isCrawlerRequest":true}