华尔街警报升温！AI交易是否已“过热”？

金十数据2025-10-15

华尔街对人工智能交易可能过热的警告声日益高涨。在与AI相关的股票与企业资本开支经历数月的纪录性上涨之后，担忧情绪愈演愈烈，一些人认为这场繁荣开始看起来像泡沫。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙在周二对记者讲话时强化了谨慎基调，称高企的资产价格是“一个令人担忧的类别”。“当资产价格处于高位时，回落的空间就更大，”戴蒙说，并补充称，尽管消费者仍在消费、公司仍在赚钱，但估值与信用利差仍然偏紧。“你会发现很多资产...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251015164355a6ba797c&s=b><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街对人工智能交易可能过热的警告声日益高涨。在与AI相关的股票与企业资本开支经历数月的纪录性上涨之后，担忧情绪愈演愈烈，一些人认为这场繁荣开始看起来像泡沫。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙在周二对记者讲话时强化了谨慎基调，称高企的资产价格是“一个令人担忧的类别”。“当资产价格处于高位时，回落的空间就更大，”戴蒙说，并补充称，尽管消费者仍在消费、公司仍在赚钱，但估值与信用利差仍然偏紧。“你会发现很多资产...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251015164355a6ba797c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AI","symbol_name":"C3.ai, 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Is AI trading \"overheated\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.83,"AVGO":0.9,"GFS":0.83,"NVDS":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"AI":0.9,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"WMT":1,"NVDD":0.6,"FOMO":1,"ORCL":0.9,"AMD":1,"NVDU":0.6,"MSFT":0.9,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDA":1,"NVDX":0.6,"GOOGL":1},"content_text":"华尔街对人工智能交易可能过热的警告声日益高涨。在与AI相关的股票与企业资本开支经历数月的纪录性上涨之后，担忧情绪愈演愈烈，一些人认为这场繁荣开始看起来像泡沫。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙在周二对记者讲话时强化了谨慎基调，称高企的资产价格是“一个令人担忧的类别”。“当资产价格处于高位时，回落的空间就更大，”戴蒙说，并补充称，尽管消费者仍在消费、公司仍在赚钱，但估值与信用利差仍然偏紧。“你会发现很多资产看起来正进入泡沫区间，这并不意味着还没有再涨20%的空间，但这又增添了一项担忧。”这种谨慎之际，新的情绪数据显示投资者的乐观情绪正走向极端。美国银行最新发布的《全球基金经理调查》显示，“AI股权泡沫”首次被列为其历史上的全球首要尾部风险。该调查覆盖约200名管理近5000亿美元资产的基金经理，该调查还显示基金经理们的现金水平降至3.8%，逼近美国银行的3.7%的“卖出”阈值。历史上，低于4%的读数往往对应风险偏好高企，并常出现在市场周期后段。这种乐观也体现在机构仓位数据中。DataTrek Research引用道富的“风险偏好指数”指出，大型专业投资者（即所谓的“大资金”）进入四季度时达到了年内最看多的状态，并已连续五个月增配风险资产。DataTrek联合创始人Nicholas Colas写道，“在没有非常大的冲击情况下，他们短期内不太可能改变看法。”另一个早期预警信号是：板块间相关性降至本轮牛市开始以来的最低水平。Colas表示，这些“异常低”的读数往往出现在投资者信心过高时，并且常常先于短期回撤出现。脱节随着投资者加码风险，企业也在用真金白银匹配这种信念，向AI倾注数十亿美元。谷歌（GOOGL）刚宣布在印度投资150亿美元打造其美国境外最大的数据中心枢纽；AMD（AMD）因与甲骨文（ORCL）达成新的芯片合作而股价走高。沃尔玛（WMT）也宣布与ChatGPT开发商OpenAI达成合作，扩展AI驱动的零售工具。值得注意的是，OpenAI近几周积极锁定芯片与基础设施，与博通（AVGO）、AMD（AMD）和英伟达（NVDA）签订协议以多元化供应链，一些分析师称这种自我投资循环可能在放大泡沫风险。“我完全相信我们正处于（AI泡沫）之中，”JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O’Rourke周二表示，他以近期科技巨头大手笔交易为例，指向市场的过热。O’Rourke提到谷歌在数据中心上的150亿美元项目，以及OpenAI大约1.5万亿美元的AI建设计划，并指出与该公司130亿美元年营收和仍未盈利的对比。“这就是投资者应该意识到存在脱节的地方，”他说，并补充称，大型科技下一轮财报可能揭示AI基础设施支出是否终于触顶。但并非所有人都认为上涨已到“疯狂”阶段。一些分析师认为，市场的强势反映的是坚定信念而非自满，且AI交易虽然拉伸，但仍有基本面支持。“我不会称其为AI泡沫，”eToro全球市场分析师Lale Akoner表示。“我们显然已经越过了早期发现阶段，进入所谓的‘完美定价’。投资者正在为故事而非执行定价，这可能掩盖执行本身，尤其对一些小盘公司而言。”“不过，我不认为我们看到的是狂热的投资者心理，”她补充说。“我认为当下情绪相当乐观，确实存在一些错失恐惧（FOMO）的因素，但远未达到普遍的亢奋。这些科技公司的资产负债表再次非常稳健，这更像是一个为完美定价的故事，而非泡沫故事。”尽管如此，正如DataTrek的Colas所言，华尔街的乐观情绪取决于大型科技公司能否真的实现盈利。分析师预计，英伟达、微软（MSFT）和谷歌母公司Alphabet等到2026年将实现两位数的盈利与收入增长，远超标普500指数的整体水平。Colas说：“这些公司在营收与利润端需要达到的标准非常高，留给上行意外的空间更少。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2575920497","isCrawlerRequest":true}