华尔街大行高光三季报背后：非银放贷大增，助长泡沫，埋下市场隐忧

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多家华尔街大行周二公布的财报显示，交易业务和投行业务在第三季度表现强劲，贷款业务也有所增长，越来越多的大型银行正转向为非银行放贷机构和资产管理公司提供融资。考虑到美联储将降息，并可能削减对银行的资本要求，有分析警告称，非银贷款更多专注于在市场中频繁买卖资产，而非为实体经济提供新融资，美联储须格外谨慎，避免在金融火焰上再添不必要的柴火。周二，花旗、高盛、摩根大通、富国银行这几家华尔街大行公布的财报...

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brokerage）的收入同比增长约三分之一，创下该业务单季度纪录。美联储最近修订的数据显示，今年美国银行业的贷款增长全部来自对非银行机构的放贷。这类借款方如今占银行未偿贷款总额的13%。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙多次被问及银行对非银行机构放贷的风险。他指出，这一领域涵盖从高风险次级贷款与高收益私人信贷，到以投资级资产作担保的贷款，以及面向万亿美元级基金管理公司的融资活动，风险各不相同。戴蒙警告称：银行体系之外存在大量“监管套利”，而当经济下行时，不良放贷将暴露出来。我们已经在一个相当宽松的信贷环境中待了太久，我认为一旦出现下行周期，银行体系外的信贷质量可能会比人们想象的恶化得更多。与此同时，美联储还准备在未来几个月内降息，并可能削减对银行的资本要求：美联储计划修改“补充杠杆率”（Supplementary Leverage Ratio, SLR）的计算方式，这将进一步提升银行开展上述类别贷款的能力，使其能够扩张股票经纪和债券融资业务，将更多资金输送至潜在泡沫化的市场。高管们还希望美联储及其他监管机构能进一步放宽规则，从而释放更多资本，让银行有空间承担更高风险，或向股东派发更多现金——而这些股东随后需要寻找新的资产来投资。据Alvarez & Marsal咨询公司本周预测，美国的放松监管可能使银行释放近1400亿美元的股本要求，相当于摩根大通当前资本的近一半。虽然这一估计颇为乐观，但足以显示放松监管的潜在幅度。与此同时，美国总统特朗普试图影响美联储的举动让市场预期，到明年夏季前利率可能会下调整整一个百分点。当前，美国股市高歌猛进，企业借贷成本接近无风险利率。有分析警告，随着对“AI驱动的市场泡沫”的担忧不断升温，美联储必须格外谨慎，避免在金融火焰上再添不必要的柴火。一些人担心美国经济增长明年将放缓、劳动力市场正在走软，美联储未来的降息更可能推高资产价格，而非解决贸易和关税带来的不确定性，而这些不确定性正让企业高层们对新投资裹足不前。媒体分析认为，美国监管机构在重新审视银行规则时，应寻找方法鼓励银行为实体经济创造信贷，而不是制造更多金融泡沫。绝不能为了“意识形态上的放松监管”而放松监管，因为那将导致金融系统过热，并为未来更严重的危机埋下隐患。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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