广发证券：重卡国内销量保持同比高增整车推荐中国重汽(000951.SZ)等

智通财经2025-10-10

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，重卡行业仍在上行周期的起点，25年以旧换新补贴政策范围扩大有望拉动国内销量加速均值回归，出口暂时增速放缓但海外空间市场广阔。考虑到卡车股当前普遍估值较低，未来盈利有望跟随销量创新高，卡车股投资价值尚未被充分挖掘。整车该行推荐产品市占率有阿尔法、出口表现亮眼的中国重汽(03808，000951.SZ)、福田汽车(600166.SH)、一汽解放(000800....

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Complete vehicle recommendations Sinotruk (000951. SZ) and others","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03808":1.5,"000951":1.5,"01776":1.5,"000776":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，重卡行业仍在上行周期的起点，25年以旧换新补贴政策范围扩大有望拉动国内销量加速均值回归，出口暂时增速放缓但海外空间市场广阔。考虑到卡车股当前普遍估值较低，未来盈利有望跟随销量创新高，卡车股投资价值尚未被充分挖掘。整车该行推荐产品市占率有阿尔法、出口表现亮眼的中国重汽(03808，000951.SZ)、福田汽车(600166.SH)、一汽解放(000800.SZ)。广发证券主要观点如下：销量：8月重卡批发、终端、出口分别同比+46.7%、+66.0%、+15.6%据中汽协，8月重卡批发销量9.2万辆，同比+46.7%，环比+7.9%;25年1-8月重卡累计批发销量71.6万辆，同比+14.5%。据交强险，8月重卡终端销量6.7万辆，同比+66.0%，环比+3.7%：25年1-8月重卡累计终端销量48.6万辆，同比+25.3%。8月重卡终端销量同比保持高增，以旧换新政策效果显著。据海关总署，8月重卡出口3.9万辆，同比+15.6%，环比+10.3%;25年1-8月重卡累计出口24.6万辆，同比+7.1%。其中，8月重卡出口俄罗斯以外地区3.8万辆，同比+71.7%、环比+14.3%;25年1-8月重卡累计出口俄罗斯以外地区24.1万辆，同比+41.7%。8月重卡出口俄罗斯地区344辆，同比-96.9%、环比-77.6%;25年1-8月重卡累计出口俄罗斯地区5278辆，同比-91.2%。25年预计国内重卡行业销量有12%-40%左右弹性，目前1-8月重卡国内销量表现在预期范围内据交强险，今年1-8月重卡累计终端销量为48.6万辆，按照正常季节性年化，全年重卡行业国内销量预计为72.3万辆，同比增长20.0%。库存：库存处于健康位置。据商联会，截至25年8月末，重卡行业总库存12.9万辆，同比下降0.03万辆，环比增加0.3万辆，动态库销比(当月总库存/近3个月终端销量滚动均值)为2.4，处在合理范围。需求：25年年初以来物流需求有所恢复。据国家统计局，25年8月公路货物周转量单月同比增速为3.8%;25年1-8月公路货物周转量累计同比增速为3.9%，25年年初以来物流需求有所恢复。市占率：据中汽协，25年1-8月福田汽车重卡累计批发销量市占率同比+5.4pct至12.6%。据交强险，25年1-8月东风集团、陕汽集团、福田汽车重卡累计终端销量市占率分别同比+0.8pct、+1.0pct、+2.3pct至21.1%、11.5%、12.3%。据中汽协，25年1-8月重汽集团、福田汽车重卡累计出口市占率同比+5.1pct、+5.2pct至45.8%、8.7%。风险提示：行业景气度下降;原材料价格上涨;行业竞争加剧等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2574143165","isCrawlerRequest":true}

广发证券：重卡国内销量保持同比高增 整车推荐中国重汽(000951.SZ)等

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广发证券：重卡国内销量保持同比高增整车推荐中国重汽(000951.SZ)等