特斯拉(TSLA.US)Q3交付量亮眼富国银行却预警：好日子可能到头了

智通财经2025-10-10

智通财经APP获悉，富国银行发表研报表示，特斯拉(TSLA.US)2025年第三季度交付量虽显著超出市场及机构预期，但受美国电动汽车税收抵免政策到期、后续需求承压等因素影响，富国银行仍对其短期增长持谨慎态度。该行维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价120美元，这意味着该股未来存在超过70%的下行空间。交付报告显示，特斯拉Q3总交付量达497099辆，不仅较富国银行自身预测的412000辆高出20.7%，...

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rigelorion
2025-10-10
rigelorion
天天都是好日子到头，结果人家两个月涨了40多个点，也不知道编辑部门是不是全员**

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14:53","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉(TSLA.US)Q3交付量亮眼 富国银行却预警：好日子可能到头了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2574142455","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，富国银行发表研报表示，特斯拉2025年第三季度交付量虽显著超出市场及机构预期，但受美国电动汽车税收抵免政策到期、后续需求承压等因素影响，富国银行仍对其短期增长持谨慎态度。交付报告显示，特斯拉Q3总交付量达497099辆，不仅较富国银行自身预测的412000辆高出20.7%，也较市场共识预期的443079辆超出12.2%，同时实现7%的同比增长及29%的环比增长。富国银行分析指出，Q3交付超预期主要依赖政策到期前的促销刺激，并非需求自然增长。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>发表研报表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)2025年第三季度交付量虽显著超出市场及机构预期，但受美国电动汽车税收抵免政策到期、后续需求承压等因素影响，富国银行仍对其短期增长持谨慎态度。该行维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价120美元，这意味着该股未来存在超过70%的下行空间。</p><p>交付报告显示，特斯拉Q3总交付量达497099辆，不仅较富国银行自身预测的412000辆高出20.7%，也较市场共识预期的443079辆超出12.2%，同时实现7%的同比增长及29%的环比增长。</p><p>值得注意的是，富国银行测算显示，特斯拉Q3库存减少约50000辆，且7-8月其在中国、欧盟及美国市场交付量同比下滑约11%，这意味着9月单月交付量同比增幅超过20%，成为拉动Q3整体交付的关键。</p><p>此外，特斯拉能源存储业务同步发力，Q3部署能源存储产品12.5GWh，较Q2的9.6GWh实现明显增长。</p><p>尽管交付数据超预期，但报告发布当日，特斯拉股价出现下跌，反映出投资者对其短期增长潜力的担忧。富国银行分析指出，Q3交付超预期主要依赖政策到期前的促销刺激，并非需求自然增长。</p><p>具体来看，为对冲美国电动汽车税收抵免政策到期影响，特斯拉在Q3推出多重激励措施：美国市场Model Y/3库存车最高折扣2000美元、美国及加拿大市场Model 3车型提供18个月免费超级充电服务，以及其他超级充电套餐，此外，特斯拉还新增6500美元租赁补贴，进一步加码促销力度。</p><p>价格端压力同样明显，富国银行估算，特斯拉Q3平均订单价格环比小幅下降，其中Model Y/3定价环比下跌1%。该行判断，Q3大概率将是特斯拉未来一段时间内交付量最强劲的季度，后续为维持交付规模，公司需持续推出有吸引力的激励政策与折扣，以抵消7500美元税收抵免到期的影响。</p><p>基于对后续需求及利润压力的判断，富国银行下调了特斯拉2025年核心业绩预期：预计全年交付量约148万辆，同比下降13%，显著低于市场共识的164万辆;同时将2025年每股收益预期下调至较市场共识低29%的水平，核心原因在于对Q4交付疲软、利润率承压及监管信贷收入下降的担忧。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉(TSLA.US)Q3交付量亮眼 富国银行却预警：好日子可能到头了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉(TSLA.US)Q3交付量亮眼 富国银行却预警：好日子可能到头了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-10 14:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1353547.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，富国银行发表研报表示，特斯拉(TSLA.US)2025年第三季度交付量虽显著超出市场及机构预期，但受美国电动汽车税收抵免政策到期、后续需求承压等因素影响，富国银行仍对其短期增长持谨慎态度。该行维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价120美元，这意味着该股未来存在超过70%的下行空间。交付报告显示，特斯拉Q3总交付量达497099辆，不仅较富国银行自身预测的412000辆高出20.7%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1353547.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0708994859.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2461242641.AUD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","BK4543":"AI","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) 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Equity Income A MDIS SGD"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1353547.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2574142455","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，富国银行发表研报表示，特斯拉(TSLA.US)2025年第三季度交付量虽显著超出市场及机构预期，但受美国电动汽车税收抵免政策到期、后续需求承压等因素影响，富国银行仍对其短期增长持谨慎态度。该行维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价120美元，这意味着该股未来存在超过70%的下行空间。交付报告显示，特斯拉Q3总交付量达497099辆，不仅较富国银行自身预测的412000辆高出20.7%，也较市场共识预期的443079辆超出12.2%，同时实现7%的同比增长及29%的环比增长。值得注意的是，富国银行测算显示，特斯拉Q3库存减少约50000辆，且7-8月其在中国、欧盟及美国市场交付量同比下滑约11%，这意味着9月单月交付量同比增幅超过20%，成为拉动Q3整体交付的关键。此外，特斯拉能源存储业务同步发力，Q3部署能源存储产品12.5GWh，较Q2的9.6GWh实现明显增长。尽管交付数据超预期，但报告发布当日，特斯拉股价出现下跌，反映出投资者对其短期增长潜力的担忧。富国银行分析指出，Q3交付超预期主要依赖政策到期前的促销刺激，并非需求自然增长。具体来看，为对冲美国电动汽车税收抵免政策到期影响，特斯拉在Q3推出多重激励措施：美国市场Model Y/3库存车最高折扣2000美元、美国及加拿大市场Model 3车型提供18个月免费超级充电服务，以及其他超级充电套餐，此外，特斯拉还新增6500美元租赁补贴，进一步加码促销力度。价格端压力同样明显，富国银行估算，特斯拉Q3平均订单价格环比小幅下降，其中Model Y/3定价环比下跌1%。该行判断，Q3大概率将是特斯拉未来一段时间内交付量最强劲的季度，后续为维持交付规模，公司需持续推出有吸引力的激励政策与折扣，以抵消7500美元税收抵免到期的影响。基于对后续需求及利润压力的判断，富国银行下调了特斯拉2025年核心业绩预期：预计全年交付量约148万辆，同比下降13%，显著低于市场共识的164万辆;同时将2025年每股收益预期下调至较市场共识低29%的水平，核心原因在于对Q4交付疲软、利润率承压及监管信贷收入下降的担忧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1.5,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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特斯拉(TSLA.US)Q3交付量亮眼 富国银行却预警：好日子可能到头了

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特斯拉(TSLA.US)Q3交付量亮眼富国银行却预警：好日子可能到头了