富国银行前瞻RobloxQ3财报：预订额或飙升60%，上调目标价至155美元

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智通财经APP获悉，Roblox(RBLX.US)将于10月30日美股盘前公布第三季度业绩。富国银行发布研报，重申对Roblox“增持”评级，并将目标价格适度上调至 155 美元。富国银行表示，在经历了受促销活动推动的夏季之后，寻求可持续预订增长率迹象的投资者可看到超出预期的业绩。富国银行认为，27%至33%的年同比增长率是合理的预期，但第二收入来源的开发仍遥遥无期。Q3预订额预计为 18.05 ...

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亿美元的季度水平，但基于更渐进的推广计划，富国银行将进一步下调广告预期。三季度EBITDA预计为 4.65 亿美元，远超预期的 3.5 亿至 3.8 亿美元以及市场普遍预期的 3.9 亿美元。富国银行还计入了自 9 月 2 日开始的 DevEx 支付额 8.5%的增幅，这仅使Q3的 DevEx 成本增加了 800 万美元。预计 DevEx 支付额同比增长 70%，这是一个强大的竞争壁垒。富国银行提高了基础设施成本 10%，因为管理层可能需要雇佣第三方云服务提供商来处理因Q3参与度飙升而产生的流量高峰。预计投资态势将继续保持。四季度EBITDA指引预计为 4.5 亿至 4.8 亿美元，市场预期接近该指引区间上限，因为富国银行认为市场尚未将 DevEx 支付额的增加纳入考虑。富国银行指出，DevEx 支付额增加的第一个完整季度就使EBITDA增加了 1800 万美元。在财报电话会议上，富国银行将寻求更多关于在 2026 年艰难增长基数下保持强劲增长的机会以及开发者对 RDC 公告的反应的见解。富国银行将 2025 年的各项预测全面上调，2025 年的预订额/EBITDA/自由现金流预计分别增长 3% / 7% / 8%。2026 年的预订额将增长 1%，因为更高的微交易额被更低的广告费用所抵消。2026 年的EBITDA/自由现金流将下降 1%，因为考虑了 9 月在 RDC 上宣布的 DevEx 活动的影响，基于 2027 年EBITDA增长 2%的预期有所提高，将目标价格从153美元适度上调至 155 美元，同时保持 40 倍 2027 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