高盛宏观大师：美股尚未出现转向避险的信号，资产买家“宇宙不断扩大”

华尔街见闻2025-10-09

Schiavone分析称，当前全球主要股指仍稳稳站在所有关键移动平均线上方，市场尚未出现需要转向风险规避的明确信号或催化剂，潜在买家仍在排队入场，这种缓慢的买家扩张构成了市场的持续利好。他表示，当下的策略是“在市场风向改变前，继续追逐风险”。流动性压倒基本面，历史重演？高盛资深宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone在其最新研报中指出，尽管全球债券市场出现了一些趋势性变化，但风险资产并未显示出转向...

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are \"expanding the universe\"","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d2570b2e72b22256a469c7755ea457","symbols_score_info":{"GS":1.5},"content_text":"Schiavone分析称，当前全球主要股指仍稳稳站在所有关键移动平均线上方，市场尚未出现需要转向风险规避的明确信号或催化剂，潜在买家仍在排队入场，这种缓慢的买家扩张构成了市场的持续利好。他表示，当下的策略是“在市场风向改变前，继续追逐风险”。流动性压倒基本面，历史重演？高盛资深宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone在其最新研报中指出，尽管全球债券市场出现了一些趋势性变化，但风险资产并未显示出转向避险的信号。他认为，一个“不断扩大的买家宇宙”正在为市场提供支撑，在流动性压倒基本面的背景下，追逐风险仍是当前的主导策略。Schiavone的分析显示，当前主要股指仍稳稳站在所有关键移动平均线上方，市场尚未出现需要转向风险规避的明确信号或催化剂。他表示，当下的策略是“在市场风向改变前，继续追逐风险”。投资者情绪和头寸状况成为反向的潜在能量，近期的普遍担忧导致许多投资者处于低配状态，而这种担忧本身可能在市场反转时成为推动上涨的“燃料”。这一观点也得到了市场流动性状况的支持。Schiavone指出，投资者手中握有高额现金，数万亿美元资金停泊在货币市场，这意味着潜在买家仍在排队入场，这种缓慢的买家扩张构成了市场的持续利好。他将当前市场与2010年至2011年的情形进行类比，当时在第一轮量化宽松（QE1）之后，标普500指数因流动性充裕而在不到一年内上涨了30%，无视疲弱的宏观数据，因为流动性压倒了基本面因素。Schiavone强调，在动量交易获得回报的环境下，他将继续追逐风险偏好，直至趋势发生改变。目前市场面临的最大风险仍是美联储采取不如市场预期激进的降息路径。他预计，伴随新任美联储主席上台，实际利率将走低，这将进一步支撑风险资产。他认为，政府关闭的延续将有利于比特币、黄金和纳斯达克交易，这是一种超长久期交易。未来数周迎来多重关键催化剂市场正进入一个Schiavone称之为“日历压缩”（Calendar Compression）的阶段，未来几周的事件将密集发生，市场可能会快速变动。从现在到感恩节只剩8周时间，今年的交易窗口所剩无几。Schiavone指出，短期内的关键催化剂包括：两周后以银行业为首的财报季将拉开帷幕；以及10月29日举行的下一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。Schiavone预计，市场可能会看到“连续降息和盈利加速”。在这种背景下，若美国政府持续关门，将利好比特币、黄金、纳斯达克指数和ARKK这类超长久期资产。关注“四大资产负债表”从更宏观的视角来看，Schiavone认为需要关注银行、企业、消费者和政府这“四张资产负债表”。其中，西方国家政府的资产负债表在经历了2008年金融危机和新冠疫情后已出现结构性恶化，这为未来的货币贬值埋下了伏笔。他指出，当前市场环境呈现出“战争经济”的某些特征。一方面，政府缺乏实施财政紧缩的政治动机；另一方面，全球正展开一场为西方政府“重新武装”的竞赛。Schiavone认为，这将对贵金属（如黄金、钯金）和作为通胀保值工具的股票形成利好，但利空长期债券。他引用Ray 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