开源证券：反内卷有望托抬煤价煤炭核心价值将被重塑

开源证券研究所2025-10-04

动力煤属于政策煤种，我们判断价格仍将反弹修复至长协价格，近期已修复到过第二目标价之上，即地方国企长协实际成交价（700元左右）之上，现货价格修复年度长协价，实际是大宗商品双轨制运行机制下的必选结果，长协本身作为优惠品种而与现货形成倒挂，会促使下游用户优先购买现货而暂缓购买长协，从而驱动现货的价格修复。未来我们仍旧看好动力煤现货价修复第三目标价之上，即达到“煤和火电企业”盈利均分位置（测算2025年...

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开源证券：反内卷有望托抬煤价 煤炭核心价值将被重塑

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开源证券：反内卷有望托抬煤价煤炭核心价值将被重塑