小摩看好2026年零售业：家得宝(HD.US)、百思买(BBY.US)、Wayfair(W.US)入选重点关注名单

智通财经09-29

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通分析师克里斯托弗·霍弗斯(Christopher Horvers)针对当前消费环境中多重因素交织的背景下——包括降息、关税调整、就业增长、加速的财富效应及“一项美丽大法案”的税收刺激政策——对零售行业展开深度分析，筛选出在动荡投资环境中具备突出潜力的企业。霍弗斯指出，2026年上半年四大积极因素有望“共振”，推动以家居/商品为核心的零售商业绩达到甚至超出市场一致预期，...

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Horvers)针对当前消费环境中多重因素交织的背景下——包括降息、关税调整、就业增长、加速的财富效应及“一项美丽大法案”的税收刺激政策——对零售行业展开深度分析，筛选出在动荡投资环境中具备突出潜力的企业。霍弗斯指出，2026年上半年四大积极因素有望“共振”，推动以家居/商品为核心的零售商业绩达到甚至超出市场一致预期，其中稳健的工资增长、不断延长的商品更换周期以及增量净通胀效益，将成为特定品牌业绩提升的关键催化剂。具体到企业层面，霍弗斯重点关注家得宝(HD.US)与Wayfair(W.US)的强劲上涨潜力。他观察到，近期房地产市场数据已显现改善迹象，且此前影响消费者支出的“消费者支出倾向的逆风”因素逐渐消散，叠加美联储可能进一步降息的预期，为这两家企业创造了有利环境。对于家得宝，霍弗斯强调其仍是零售行业中“最佳长期投资标的”之一，主要基于公司自身推动增长的举措、卓越的企业文化以及对门店创新的持续投入;而Wayfair则因长期在线零售趋势的加速发展，有望实现超越同行的增长速度。目前，这两家企业均已被摩根大通纳入“积极催化剂观察名单”。同样受房地产市场周期影响的百思买(BBY.US)，在霍弗斯的分析框架中展现出与家得宝相似的关联逻辑，尤其在家电、电视等品类上表现显著。值得注意的是，平板电脑的更新换代周期有望为百思买带来利好——这类产品占其销售额的33%。霍弗斯特别指出，当前投资者可能低估了科技产品更新周期的潜力，以及百思买销售额与房地产市场的紧密关联性，因此对该企业持积极态度。霍弗斯的分析早于特朗普总统于2025年9月26日(上周五)宣布的对进口家具、厨柜及浴室盥洗台加征关税的政策，霍弗斯认为，尽管额外成本可能对Wayfair的利润空间构成压力，但消费者需求大概率不会因此受抑制。Wayfair强大的线上业务体系、管理层对费用管控的承诺，以及其作为行业最大在线专业零售商所拥有的优势产品组合与供应链能力，有望引发盈利预期上调的长期拐点。此外，企业通过人工智能技术优化平台功能、升级物流体系(如CastleGate物流平台构建的生态系统)，已形成对同行的竞争优势。对于家得宝而言，其风险敞口更小——企业已采取重大措施降低对外国供应商的依赖，且供应链多元化布局中大部分商品源自美国本土，这赋予其在成本管理与定价策略上的灵活性，能够有效吸收潜在的价格冲击，例如近期关税政策带来的成本波动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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