实地调研6家泡泡玛特门店后，大摩结论：在美暂无对手,客流量仅次于苹果门店

智通财经APP2025-09-30

泡泡玛特的美国门店成功吸引到了一群不速之客——摩根士丹利的分析师们。9月28日，大摩发布一份研究报告，称上周实地走访了泡泡玛特在美国的6家门店，通过三项观察进一步印证了观点——泡泡玛特美国市场仍处于发展初期。目前,尚无其他玩具/爱好类门店能提供与泡泡玛特相同的消费体验，例如拆盒带来的乐趣、极具吸引力的产品设计以及丰富的IP矩阵。而6家门店中有5家的客流量和交易额超过周边门店，仅次于苹果门店。大摩...

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stores","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.5},"content_text":"泡泡玛特的美国门店成功吸引到了一群不速之客——摩根士丹利的分析师们。9月28日，大摩发布一份研究报告，称上周实地走访了泡泡玛特在美国的6家门店，通过三项观察进一步印证了观点——泡泡玛特美国市场仍处于发展初期。目前,尚无其他玩具/爱好类门店能提供与泡泡玛特相同的消费体验，例如拆盒带来的乐趣、极具吸引力的产品设计以及丰富的IP矩阵。而6家门店中有5家的客流量和交易额超过周边门店，仅次于苹果门店。大摩分析师们走访了泡泡玛特的纽约及新泽西州门店，包括美国梦购物中心店、泽西城花园购物中心店（试营业）、史泰登岛店、世界贸易中心店。还有泡泡玛特的旧金山门店，包括石镇购物中心和联合广场店（试营业）。核心发现新客群与产品广度：在多数门店中，发现有新顾客询问公司 “盲盒” 产品的定义。同时，顾客购买的IP/产品种类丰富，并非仅聚焦于Labubu毛绒玩具（部分门店无该产品在售，或实施限购）。这表明零售门店是推广泡泡玛特丰富IP/产品组合的有效渠道。门店布局与客群基础：目前泡泡玛特在美国的50家门店大多位于居民区，在核心商业中心（如曼哈顿中城）的门店数量较少。与全球其他市场类似，美国门店的持续扩张对于构建稳固的核心客群至关重要。运营优化空间：尽管部分门店盈利能力良好，但仍存在优化空间：例如部分门店面积过小（约100平方米）；另有部分门店仍通过Instagram发布补货通知，数字化运营手段有待升级。（Labubu示意图）关键信息客群特征与其他市场相比，美国门店中儿童（由成人陪同）占比更高，这可能与美国消费者购买力较强有关。多数顾客为20-40岁的成年人；亚裔顾客在部分门店占比 30%-40%，在其他门店占比10%-20%。客流量与交易额即便未销售Labubu毛绒玩具，多数受访门店的客流量依然可观。6家门店中有5家的客流量和交易额超过周边门店，仅次于苹果门店；唯一未超过周边门店的是位于泽西城花园购物中心的门店——该购物中心为大型奥特莱斯，汇集了多家主流鞋服品牌，且折扣力度较大。此外，该门店目前处于试营业阶段，商品品类尚不齐全。预计待库存补足后，泽西城花园店及旧金山联合广场店将正式开业。市场竞争格局目前尚无其他玩具/爱好类门店能提供与泡泡玛特相同的消费体验，例如拆盒带来的乐趣、极具吸引力的产品设计以及丰富的IP矩阵。热门IP与商品陈列除Labubu外，热门IP还包括Crybaby、Skullpanda、Hirono、Twinkle Twinkle、Dimoo，以及部分日本动漫/迪士尼授权产品。多数门店的入口处均陈列了Peach Riot系列产品。（Twinkle Twinkle示意图）(Crybaby示意图)6家门店的商品各有差异，每家门店仅销售泡泡玛特全部产品组合中的一部分。因此，每家门店可每几周轮换大部分商品，以保持产品新鲜感。大摩对泡泡玛特的评估·标的属性：中国/香港市场消费板块首选·股票评级/行业观点：增持/与行业持平·目标价：港元382·相对于目标价的涨幅（%）：44%·股价（收盘价9月26日）：港元266·当前市值（百万美元）：45920估值方法估值方法基准情景估值：2025年预测市盈率目标为42倍。以2025-2027年每股收益复合年增长率计算，市盈率相对增长率为16%。大摩认为，对于一家具有全球扩张潜力的高增长消费企业而言，这一估值水平合理。进一步估值提升驱动因素·中国及海外市场销售势头持续，老产品线扩张及IP导向型举措推进·每平方米收入持续增长估值上行·海外市场增长快于预期，旗舰店开业·热门产品及 IP 持续推出·新业务（玩具展、自动贩卖机、快闪店、主题公园）取得成功·中国市场增长势头保持估值下行·宏观经济环境疲软·新产品及 IP 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