高盛：只要美国经济不衰退，降息对美股就是利好

华尔街见闻2025-09-21

根据高盛的最新分析，美联储开启的降息周期将为美国股市提供支撑，前提是美国经济能够成功规避衰退。据追风交易台消息，本周，美联储实施了自2024年12月以来的首次降息，推动标普500指数周内上涨1%，并创下年内第27个历史新高。高盛经济学家在最新研报中预计，美联储今年还将有两次25个基点的降息，并在2026年再降息两次，这一路径与当前市场预期基本一致。随着市场已基本消化降息预期，高盛指出，利率对估值的...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250921184129953b9aaf&s=b><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据高盛的最新分析，美联储开启的降息周期将为美国股市提供支撑，前提是美国经济能够成功规避衰退。据追风交易台消息，本周，美联储实施了自2024年12月以来的首次降息，推动标普500指数周内上涨1%，并创下年内第27个历史新高。高盛经济学家在最新研报中预计，美联储今年还将有两次25个基点的降息，并在2026年再降息两次，这一路径与当前市场预期基本一致。随着市场已基本消化降息预期，高盛指出，利率对估值的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250921184129953b9aaf&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1868837136.USD","symbol_name":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) 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Kostin在一份报告中指出，随着美联储的政策路径基本被市场定价，股市的驱动逻辑正在发生转变。他们预计，企业盈利将继续成为股价的主要驱动因素。报告数据显示，标普500指数的远期市盈率已从年初的21.5倍升至目前的22.6倍。高盛认为，虽然这一估值水平相对于历史较高，但考虑到当前的宏观经济和企业基本面背景，其估值接近公允价值。策略师判断，宽松的美联储政策和预计在2026年加速的经济增长，将支撑市场维持现有估值水平，从而让盈利增长来推动美股的持续收益。高盛预测，标普500指数的每股收益（EPS）在2025年和2026年将分别增长7%。从历史经验看，一个避免了衰退的降息周期对股市而言是积极的。高盛回顾了过去40年的数据，发现在美联储暂停加息六个月以上后启动降息的8次周期中，有一半最终经济陷入衰退。但在另外四次经济持续增长的“非衰退式降息”周期中，标普500指数在降息后的6个月和12个月内，取得了8%和15%的中位数回报。从行业来看，在这些时期，信息技术和非必需消费品板块表现最佳。从投资风格来看，高增长型股票的表现最为出色。投资者仓位偏低，提供战术性上行空间尽管股市处于历史高位，但高盛认为，投资者仓位仍是支撑股市短期上行的最有力论据。该行的情绪指标（Sentiment Indicator）目前读数为-0.3，显示股票投资者仓位仍然“偏低”。报告指出，在情绪指标的九个组成部分中，只有一个偏离了其12个月均值一个标准差以上。这种并不拥挤的仓位状况意味着，如果宏观背景保持稳定向好，仍有大量资金可能流入股市，从而带来“战术性上行”机会。基于对市场的判断，高盛调整了其投资建议。策略师们继续推荐持有高比例浮动利率债务的公司。这类公司能从短期利率下降中获得切实的盈利提振。据估算，债务成本每下降100个基点，这些公司的盈利将提升超过5%。与此同时，高盛提醒，近期部分利率敏感型股票的优异表现可能会减弱。例如，住宅建筑商和生物科技等板块，其近期涨势主要受益于长期利率的下行。由于高盛预计长期利率下行空间有限，这些板块的增长动能可能面临消退。策略师认为，在对利率敏感的股票中，应优先选择那些同时对经济增长前景也较为敏感的类别，如中小型市值股票。综合以上分析，高盛策略师团队更新了其对标普500指数的预测。他们将3个月、6个月和12个月的目标点位分别上调至6800点、7000点和7200点。这意味自当前水平，未来一年该指数仍有约8%的上涨潜力。~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~以上精彩内容来自追风交易台。更详细的解读，包括实时解读、一线研究等内容，请加入【追风交易台▪年度会员】","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.13","shortVersion":"4.35.13","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2569226603","isCrawlerRequest":true}