必和必拓(BHP.US)裁员750人并暂停矿场运营大摩仍维持增持：成本优化无损长期前景

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智通财经APP获悉，大摩对必和必拓(BHP.US)的深度分析显示，这家澳大利亚矿业巨头正通过战略调整应对行业挑战，同时展现出稳健的财务表现与长期价值潜力。作为全球最大矿产资源企业之一，必和必拓近期在昆士兰州的运营调整引发市场关注——其与三菱联盟(BMA)宣布自11月起暂停Saraji South矿场运营并裁员750人，此举直接回应昆士兰州政府高额煤炭特许权使用费及市场环境压力，旨在通过成本削减维持...

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South矿场运营并裁员750人，此举直接回应昆士兰州政府高额煤炭特许权使用费及市场环境压力，旨在通过成本削减维持竞争力。从财务数据看，大摩给予必和必拓“增持”评级，目标价46.50澳元，当前市值区间约1378亿至1726亿美元。2025财年预测显示，公司净收入将达512.62亿美元，EBITDA为259.78亿美元，净利润101.57亿美元，每股收益2.00美元。未来四年财务表现呈现波动但韧性特征：2026财年净利润预计微增至104.49亿美元，EPS升至2.05美元;2027年受成本结构优化影响，净利润回调至98.51亿美元，但2028年将回升至102.93亿美元，EPS达2.02美元。关键财务比率方面，市盈率维持12.1-14.0倍区间，EV/EBITDA为6.1-7.2倍，股本回报率保持在18.4%-22.7%的较高水平。业务策略层面，必和必拓展现出生产灵活性。BMA的2026财年生产指导范围为3600万至4000万吨，通过跨区域产能调配可部分抵消Saraji South停产影响。尽管上周公司因“同工同酬”裁决失败需向约1100名工人支付3000万澳元额外款项，但分析师认为裁员措施将有效对冲中期生产成本压力。市场展望方面，Saraji South矿场因运输距离长、成本高，在综合体中占比有限，其停产对整体生产指导影响可控。行业环境方面，昆士兰州煤炭特许权使用费政策与市场波动形成双重挑战，促使公司加速成本结构优化。风险评估显示，上行风险包括商品价格超预期走强、澳元贬值及中国钢铁消费量超基础预测;下行风险则聚焦项目执行问题(如Escondida铜矿、Olympic Dam铜铀矿及Jansen钾矿项目)及铁矿石业务运营挑战。估值方法采用60%基础情景+20%乐观/悲观情景的DCF部门加总法，WACC为8.1%(贝塔系数0.9倍，债务成本5.5%，股权成本10%)，确保评估体系覆盖多维度变量。大摩分析师Rahul Anand强调，成本削减措施虽伴随社会成本，但实为应对政策与市场压力的必要之举，有助于维持生产指导与竞争力;研究助理Michael A 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必和必拓(BHP.US)裁员750人并暂停矿场运营 大摩仍维持增持：成本优化无损长期前景

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必和必拓(BHP.US)裁员750人并暂停矿场运营大摩仍维持增持：成本优化无损长期前景