英国央行9月暂停降息后，主要券商预计2025年不会再降息

环球市场播报09-19

高盛（Goldman Sachs）、花旗集团（Citigroup）、摩根大通（J.P.Morgan）等主要券商预计，在英国央行（Bank of England，简称 BoE）维持关键利率不变后，该行今年将不会再实施降息。　　英国央行于周四（9 月 18 日）宣布暂停降息，这一举措符合市场普遍预期。此前在 8 月，该行已将利率下调 25 个基点。当前英国央行正面临通胀居高不下、经济增长与就业前景...

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ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD"},"translate_title":"Major brokerages expect no more rate cuts in 2025 after Bank of England paused them in September","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MPC":1},"content_text":"高盛（Goldman Sachs）、花旗集团（Citigroup）、摩根大通（J.P.Morgan）等主要券商预计，在英国央行（Bank of England，简称 BoE）维持关键利率不变后，该行今年将不会再实施降息。\n　　英国央行于周四（9 月 18 日）宣布暂停降息，这一举措符合市场普遍预期。此前在 8 月，该行已将利率下调 25 个基点。当前英国央行正面临通胀居高不下、经济增长与就业前景不明朗的复杂局面，此次暂停降息是其应对当前形势的举措。\n　　就在英国央行宣布决定的前一天，有数据显示，英国 8 月通胀率维持在 3.8% 的水平，在主要发达经济体中处于最高位。\n　　目前，高盛和摩根大通均预测，英国央行下一轮降息周期将始于 2026 年 2 月，此后将按季度降息。不过，两家券商的策略师均表示，若短期经济数据出现显著恶化，12 月实施降息也有可能是合理的。\n　　皮尔亨特（Peel Hunt）也持相同观点，认为 2025 年不会继续降息。\n　　伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）汇编的数据显示，市场当前预计到今年年底，英国央行仅会降息 7.5 个基点，这意味着该行今年再次降息的概率约为 30%。\n　　英国央行维持此前预测，即通胀率将在本月达到 4% 的峰值，之后将缓慢回落，到 2027 年年中达到 2% 的目标水平。英国央行行长安德鲁・贝利（Andrew Bailey）警告称，英国经济尚未脱离困境，未来任何降息举措都需循序渐进，并经过审慎考量。\n　　花旗集团分析师在一份报告中表示：“货币政策委员会（MPC）的被动应对策略为短期政策调整留下了较大空间。”\n　　与此同时，英国券商巴克莱银行（Barclays）仍维持其基准预期，即 11 月有可能实施降息。该机构认为，即将公布的经济数据预计将表现疲软，这将为货币政策宽松提供支撑 —— 尤其是考虑到英国央行采取 “数据依赖型” 政策立场。\n　　不过，法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）则认为，下一次降息将在 12 月而非 11 月实施。该行表示，推迟降息可为英国央行应对不确定性提供缓冲空间。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：郭明煜","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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