高盛看好海科航空(HEI.US)后市：多重驱动因素有望推升股价！潜在涨幅近19%

智通财经2025-09-19

智通财经APP获悉，高盛近日与美国航空航天及国防供应商海科航空(HEI.US)的管理层举行了一次投资者会议。高盛指出，航空航天售后市场、份额增长、利润率、并购等因素将推动该公司股价。高盛维持对海科航空的“买入”评级，12个月目标价为382美元。这一目标价较该股周四收盘价321.74美元有约19%的上涨空间。资料显示，海科航空是一家航空航天和国防供应商，专注于为商用飞机和国防产品制造替代部件。在商业...

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Potential gain of nearly 19%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"HEI.A":1.5,"HEI":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，高盛近日与美国航空航天及国防供应商海科航空(HEI.US)的管理层举行了一次投资者会议。高盛指出，航空航天售后市场、份额增长、利润率、并购等因素将推动该公司股价。高盛维持对海科航空的“买入”评级，12个月目标价为382美元。这一目标价较该股周四收盘价321.74美元有约19%的上涨空间。资料显示，海科航空是一家航空航天和国防供应商，专注于为商用飞机和国防产品制造替代部件。在商业航空领域，该公司是最大的飞机替换部件独立生产商。在国防市场，该公司生产用于瞄准技术以及仿真设备等类别的利基子组件。该公司分为两个部门：飞行支持组(FSG)和电子技术组(ETG)，两者都在不同程度上为航空航天和国防部门提供服务。高盛在研报中指出，会议讨论重点集中在资本部署、航空航天售后市场增长、PMA(替代零件制造批准件)、Wencor整合以及各业务部门利润率。以下是会议要点。1、资本部署海科航空表示，并购机会储备非常活跃。随着大流行后航空航天与国防行业的盈利和估值倍数恢复正常，越来越多的企业进入市场(包括创始人主导、传统投行主导的交易，以及拆分出售的机会)。海科航空正在评估飞行支持组(FSG)和电子技术组(ETG)中大致相同数量的机会，重点仍然是核心的商用航空和国防业务。该公司净债务/息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)目前约为2.0倍，为公司提供了充足的并购资产负债表能力。2、航空航天售后市场海科航空并未观察到商用售后市场活动放缓，原因在于机队老化、新飞机供应有限以及持续的飞行需求。该公司还指出，许多航空公司已对中龄飞机进行大规模改装和现代化投资，从而延长了飞机的退役时间。也就是说，从长期来看，售后市场增长将逐步回归正常，即相当于GDP/ASK(可用座位公里，运力指标)的约2倍，而不是当前约14-15%的水平。虽然美国部分地区需求有所疲软，但海科航空的业务活动依然强劲，该公司表示今年迄今几乎没有受到影响。3、PMA(替代零件制造批准件)海科航空向商用航空和国防客户销售PMA零件，并在两个终端市场维持与原始设备制造商(OEM)零件相同的折扣。当该公司向市场推出新的PMA零件时，公司会将该零件的定价设定为OEM零件的7折，并在多年长期协议中保持这一价格。随着OEM不断提高原始零件的价格，该公司的折扣幅度会扩大，有时甚至达到OEM零件价格的五到六折。这种定价策略使海科航空在向客户销售更多PMA零件时处于有利地位，从而提高市场份额，随后公司再逐步提高价格。在商用航空领域，海科航空的PMA业务已经相对成熟，而在国防领域，PMA采用仍处于早期阶段，不太可能对2025年业绩产生实质性影响。该公司管理层认为，国防领域的PMA机会大致相当于新增1-2家大型航空公司客户。国防领域的PMA通常仅限于商业衍生机型，例如Poseidon P8(737NG衍生型)、KC-135(367-80衍生型)或KC-46A(767衍生型)。4、Wencor整合海科航空持续从收购Wencor中实现协同效应。虽然最初计划是将该业务更全面地并入海科航空的运营体系，但该公司发现，在保持Wencor相对独立运营的情况下，能够实现显著的交叉销售和MRO(维修、大修与运营)协同效应。尽管如此，仍存在一些在海科航空与Wencor之间调动人员和产品线的机会，而保持Wencor独立运营反而扩大了公司未来并购的视野。Wencor整合正在推动FSG利润率走高，因为公司能够销售更多PMA零件，而PMA零件由于成本强度较低，利润率更高。5、各部门利润率情况海科航空重申了FSG的EBIT利润率在中期约为24%的预期，并称在长期有进一步上行潜力。近期利润率超预期的原因在于更高的国防业务量以及PMA友好的维修运营。约15-20%的FSG收入来自国防领域，海科航空在该领域生产导弹防御的结构组件(占该分部国防收入的一半以上)以及无人机系统。在ETG，利润率仍低于大流行前水平，部分原因是收购Exxelia带来约200个基点的EBITA利润率压力，以及业务组合变化(国防收入目前占ETG收入的约40%，而大流行前约为50%)。不过，该公司认为，ETG未来仍有利润率扩张的机会。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2568089256","isCrawlerRequest":true}