高盛：光伏反内卷盈利拐点在何时？

智通财经2025-09-10

智通财经APP获悉，高盛在9月3-5日的Asia Leaders Conference活动中邀请了七家光伏产业链企业(协鑫科技、大全新能源、迈为股份、隆基绿能、爱旭股份、晶科能源、阿特斯)。组件和设备企业均提及，自反内卷以来，已实施非常严格的新增产能控制，不仅主流技术(如TOPCon)新项目暂停审批，已获批在建项目也被要求暂停施工。企业认为，以后只有先进技术才能获得扩产批准。多晶硅企业给出的指引是...

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Conference活动中邀请了七家光伏产业链企业(协鑫科技、大全新能源、迈为股份、隆基绿能、爱旭股份、晶科能源、阿特斯)。组件和设备企业均提及，自反内卷以来，已实施非常严格的新增产能控制，不仅主流技术(如TOPCon)新项目暂停审批，已获批在建项目也被要求暂停施工。企业认为，以后只有先进技术才能获得扩产批准。多晶硅企业给出的指引是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1343383.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0048573561.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) 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Conference活动中邀请了七家光伏产业链企业(协鑫科技、大全新能源、迈为股份、隆基绿能、爱旭股份、晶科能源、阿特斯)。组件和设备企业均提及，自反内卷以来，已实施非常严格的新增产能控制，不仅主流技术(如TOPCon)新项目暂停审批，已获批在建项目也被要求暂停施工。企业认为，以后只有先进技术才能获得扩产批准。多晶硅企业给出的指引是盈利拐点在2025年三季度出现；高效组件企业给出的指引是在2025年四季度。多晶硅与组件企业价格前景分化多晶硅企业提及，旨在覆盖满产时生产成本的第一阶段多晶硅提价已得到良好执行。据大全称，8月末交易量显著回升，价格在每千克人民币45-50元区间，其中大部分采购来自一体化组件企业。据协鑫科技称，从9月份开始，中国光伏行业协会(CPIA)将在年内剩余时间实行全行业的生产配额限制(2025年9-12月共50万吨)，各企业按产能份额获得相应配额，从而重新平衡月度供需。在当前反不正当竞争的环境下，协鑫科技认为多晶硅价格需要进一步上涨至每千克人民币50-60元，才可弥补生产配额控制导致的单位折旧成本上升。在图表1中，高盛以图示说明了我们在Asia LeadersConference小组会议上讨论的多晶硅三阶段提价。然而，组件企业对多晶硅价格的可持续性持怀疑态度，因为大多数组件企业表示，尽管目前多晶硅报价持续上涨，但他们并无计划在当前价格下补充多晶硅库存。此外，组件企业提及光伏电站方面对组件提价的接受度较低，因为在新政策环境(即136号文，或称新能源上网电价市场化机制)下，上网电价的不确定性加大。多措并举，以实现整个产业链上产能过剩的再平衡高盛总结了Asia Leaders Conference小组会议期间讨论最多的再平衡措施，包括设立多晶硅尾部产能收购基金、以研发驱动电池片和组件产能出清、以及严格控制新增产能扩张。据协鑫科技和大全称，多晶硅尾部产能收购基金仍在讨论中，可能会在2025年下半年公布重大进展。如果进展不及预期，协鑫科技预计政策力度将会加大以帮助加快收购进程。光伏电站方面对提价的接受度较低，而组件企业主要专注于加快产品效率提升和探索高利润率的小众市场，这不仅有助于维持价格走势(通过为客户更多地节省BoS成本)，也有助于减少材料用量从而加快成本下降，并且据企业称，这还能淘汰研发和资金能力较差的低线厂商。此外，组件和设备企业均提及，自反内卷以来，已实施非常严格的新增产能控制，不仅主流技术(如TOPCon)新项目暂停审批，已获批在建项目也被要求暂停施工。企业认为，以后只有先进技术才能获得扩产批准。多晶硅企业给出的指引是盈利拐点出现在2025年三季度，高效组件企业给出的指引是在2025年四季度鉴于多晶硅提价，协鑫科技和大全均表示2025年三季度以来盈利拐点已经显现。具体而言:i)协鑫科技表示，在当前价格下，公司多晶硅业务已在8月份实现正的营业利润；ii)大全表示2025年三季度已实现正的现金利润(而2025年二季度为-22%)。组件方面，隆基绿能重申了2025年四季度实现营业利润盈亏平衡的指引(即核心业务毛利可覆盖销售及管理费用)，这更多是由公司自身因素(高利润率产品贡献上升)所驱动。具体而言，隆基绿能指出公司指引的假设是其高效BC组件的出货量占比提高(从2025年上半年的20%升至2025年下半年的35%左右和2026年的50%)，而BC组件的毛利率比TOPCon高出10-15个百分点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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高盛：光伏反内卷 盈利拐点在何时？

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高盛：光伏反内卷盈利拐点在何时？