博通ASIC来势汹汹，英伟达无惧！

半导体产业纵横09-10

本文由半导体产业纵横（ID：ICVIEWS）综合英伟达认为高效能与高能效并重的架构才是最佳选择。NVIDIA 执行副总裁暨财务长Colette Kress 在高盛科技会议上针对ASIC 芯片的市场冲击发表看法，并同步揭露最新Vera Rubin GPU 的进度。近期博通宣布拿下100 亿美元ASIC 合约，市场担忧NVIDIA 的主导地位可能受到挑战。对此，Kress 强调，NVIDIA 的策略...

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自研专案外，Google TPU的发展也日渐成熟；同时，市场消息传出Apple 与Elon Musk的xAI 也将加入ASIC 阵营。随着更多科技巨头在推理应用上倾向成本更低的ASIC，NVIDIA 的未来走向备受关注。而在新产品方面，Kress 透露，Vera Rubin GPU 已完成六颗芯片的流片（taped out）。虽然Vera Rubin GPU 还没正式上市，但大型客户已经开始排队等候。更惊人的是，光是为了部署Rubin，数据中心就预先规划了数个GW 等级的电力需求—这相当于数座大型核电厂的发电量。显示Rubin 系列有望成为下一波大型AI 系统部署的核心。AI ASIC与英伟达AI GPU属于AI芯片的两种截然不同的技术路线，当前两者在很大程度上互为市场竞争对手，尤其是AI ASIC对于那些超大规模云计算巨头与OpenAI这样的AI领军者们来说，在AI训练/推理领域具备非常明显的性价比与能效比优势。OpenAI给博通带来的100亿美元“超级订单”以及博通业绩凸显出的AI ASIC炸裂式需求，令华尔街分析师们对于英伟达2026—2030年业绩预期出现裂痕，博通的强势崛起迫使他们适度下修此前予以的极高业绩增长预期，这也是英伟达周五股价暴跌的核心逻辑。据媒体援引知情人士透露的消息，博通公司正在帮助OpenAI设计并生产一款定制化人工智能加速芯片（即AI ASIC芯片）。据媒体报道，两家公司计划最早从明年开始交付该系列中的首批AI芯片，这也将使得作为AI算力基础设施领域的绝对领导者——英伟达，面对来自博通的AI芯片领域最直接也是最强大的长期竞争压力。博通第三财季与AI基建相关的半导体营收约为52亿美元，同比增速高达63%，高于51.1亿美元的华尔街平均预期。博通管理层预计该类别营收在第四财季将达到约62亿美元，意味着有望同比增长近70%，高于分析师们此前预期的约58.2亿美元。在财报发布前，市场对于博通的业绩以及未来展望数据的预期非常高，因此超出市场预期可谓大幅提振投资者对于博通，乃至整个AI算力产业链的看涨情绪。博通首席执行官陈福阳（Hock Tan）在博通公布业绩后的电话会议上表示，在从一位未具名的新超大规模客户（后被媒体曝出为OpenAI）那里获得了逾100亿美元的AI基础设施订单之后，该公司预计2026财年的与人工智能相关联的营收增速将比该公司此前的预期更加强劲。在上一次业绩电话会上，陈福阳曾表示，2026年的AI相关营收前景将呈现与今年相似的增长轨迹——即预计增速约为50%至60%。三星电子正与xAI就ASIC芯片代工谈判韩媒Business Post 报道称，在拿下马斯克旗下电动汽车与机器人企业 Tesla 特斯拉的大额 AI6 芯片订单后，三星电子又与马斯克旗下的人工智能与社交媒体企业 xAI 就可能的 AI ASIC 晶圆代工合作展开磋商。作为当下AI 模型与服务市场的重要参与者，xAI 是少数有实力开发定制 ASIC 的人工智能初创企业之一。xAI 的竞争对手 OpenAI 已与博通合作启动了定制 AI ASIC / XPU 开发项目，相关产品有望明年面世。对于AI 企业而言，自研 ASIC 芯片可降低对英伟达 AI GPU 的依赖，长久来看成功的定制XPU 项目将在大规模推理算力部署中为企业节省大笔成本。消息人士表示，xAI 的定制 ASIC 项目尚未到达通向量产的关键节点 —— 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